Research Reports: The Economic Outlook Group

View a sample of our Economic Talking Points reports below.

2023

December 20, 2023 -Annual Economic Forecasts 2024 - 2025
October 9, 2023 -Wars in the Middle East, Ukraine, Soaring Interest Rates, High Energy Prices: The Fallout?
October 6, 2023 -"Great Employment News Could Be Awful News for the Economy." Welcome to the Twilight Zone
September 20, 2023 -The Fed Turns More Hawkish; A Bizarre Policy Shift That Puts the 2024 Economy at Risk
September 14, 2023 -Costly Fuel, Record Debt, High Interest Rates. Consumers Are About to Downshift Spending
September 13, 2023 -August CPI and the Geopolitics of Oil
August 15, 2023 -A Cautionary Note: Can This Business Cycle Survive The Political Perils Ahead?
August 11, 2023 -Modest Growth in the US & International Economy Has Helped Cool Inflation
August 4, 2023 -The Fed May Pull It Off: A Soft Landing For The Economy Looks More Likely
June 30, 2023 -Ladies and Gentleman, The Recession Has Been Cancelled
June 10, 2023 -The Fed Should Pause the Rest Of The Year
May 10, 2023 -Note to the Federal Reserve: Sit back, be patient and enjoy the disinflation trend
April 27, 2023 -Debt Default Looming: The U.S. Is 30 - 90 Days Away From Economic Disaster
April 12, 2023 -Inflation Slows Even As Employment Remains Robust
April 7, 2023 -The Latest Jobs Report Suggests the US Will Dodge a Recession
March 22, 2023 -An Act of Folly By the Fed
February 14, 2023 -Inflation Remains Stable Even Amidst of Robust Labor Market
February 3, 2023 -Collapse of the Phillips Curve: The Decoupling of Employment and Inflation

2022

August 5, 2022 -A Perplexed Federal Reserve: As Interest Rates Climb, Hiring Accelerates
July 14, 2022 -The Fed's dilemma: The economy is clearly slowing; yet inflation keeps plowing ahead
July 8, 2022 -A (Not So) Robust Jobs Report
July 7, 2022 -Americans Are In A Recessionary State of Mind
June 28, 2022 -This summer may be the last hurrah before Americans shut down spending.
June 16, 2022 -The Fed's Aggressive Rate Policy May Do More Harm Than Good
June 10, 2022 -An Inflation That Stems From Abroad. Can the Fed Do Anything?
May 17, 2022 -Economic Reports Show Supply of Goods Are Edging Closer to Demand. Will the Fed Take Notice?
May 11, 2022 -Inflation is at an inflection point. Will The Fed Still Charge Ahead with Higher Rates?
May 6, 2022 -Fed Should Stop Fretting Over An "Unsustainable Hot" Job Market
February 10, 2022 -Commentary: The March Fed Meeting Will Be Among the Most Consequential in History
February 9, 2022 -January Inflation: What Should the Fed Do? Hike Rates 50 Basis Points
January 14, 2022 -Retail sales, Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment
January 12, 2022 -The Fed Must Not Overreact To 7% Inflation
January 7, 2022 -As Wages Climb, Companies Are Looking At Other Options
January 4, 2022 -FORECAST: US ECONOMY 2022 - 2024: A Return to Normalcy or Stagnation?

2021

December 15, 2021 -Chapter Two: Interest Rate Lift off or Run Down the Balance Sheet?
December 14, 2021 -The Fed Prepares for a Delicate Two-Step Dance: Taper and Tightening
August 6, 2021 -A Robust Employment Report, Yes. But Tone Down Some of the Exuberance.
July 19, 2021 -It's The Proliferation Of New Covid Strains that Now Worries The Fed's Jerome Powell
July 13, 2021 -Inflation Surged In June, But It Is Now At Or Near Its Peak For This Cycle
May 28, 2021 -PCE Inflation Spikes As Expected. But More Serene Waters Ahead
May 7, 2021 -April: The Million Jobs That Never Was
May 3, 2021 -Prepare for the Tiptoe Taper
April 13, 2021 -The Three Rules of Inflation
April 9, 2021 -A Jump in PPI and CPI Does Not Signal Rampant Inflation Ahead.
April 2, 2021 -March Showed Robust Job Growth. But Do Not Overlook the Hazards Ahead!
March 25, 2021 -Peer Through the Hubble Telescope and You Might Catch A Fleeting Glance at Inflation.
March 16, 2021 -Consumer Spending Beyond the Stimulus Checks
March 10, 2021 -Beware of Those Frothy Forecast of GDP and Inflation
March 9, 2021 -UNITED STATES � Small Business Optimism Index; JAPAN - GDP and Machine Tools
February 5, 2021 -A Terribly Misleading Jobs Report
January 12, 2021 -2021: A Year of Transition for the Economy and Politics

2020

December 4, 2020 -November Jobs Report:Is it the Catalyst that Finally Gets Congress to Act on Stimulus?
December 3, 2020 -Commentary 2021: It's Time For Some Viral Optimism
December 2, 2020 -A Wobbly Economy That's Approaching Three Fiscal Cliffs
November 24, 2020 -US Economy Faces Many Hurdles In 2021---Even With Yellen as Treasury Secretary
November 9, 2020 -A Biden Presidency: Ten Major Challenges
July 27, 2020 -The Pandemic Rescue Debate: A Bad Time for the GOP to Become Born Again Deficit Hawks
July 20, 2020 -The Urgency For Another Stimulus Package
July 13, 2020 -We're In A Recession Now. But What Can We Expect In 2021 And 2022?
July 6, 2020 -Lessons Learned From June Point To A Feeble Economy The Rest Of 2020
April 3, 2020 -The Economic Ice Age Has Begun. How Long Will It Last?
March 26, 2020 -The Economic Fallout From the Covid 19 Pandemic Has Begun
March 18, 2020 -A Trillion Dollar Microbe
March 6, 2020 -February's Jobs Report Suggests a Post-Coronavirus V-shape Recovery Ahead
March 3, 2020 -The Federal Reserve Pulled the Fire Alarm, But Didn't Say Why
March 2, 2020 -Is a Virus Recession Next for China and the US?
January 10, 2020 -Why Low Unemployment Has Not Led To Wage Inflation
January 6, 2020 -The Outlook for 2020 and the Election's Impact on 2021 - 2022

2019

December 13, 2019 -Did China and the US Reach a Substantive Phase One Trade Deal?
December 6, 2019 -A Roaring Jobs Report: But Is The Economy Really That Bullet Proof?
December 3, 2019 -How Many More Blows Can This Aging Business Cycle Take?
November 1, 2019 -More Economic Evidence Why Recession Fears in 2020 are Unfounded
October 30, 2019 -A Stronger 3Q GDP Makes Today's Rate Cut Unnecessary---But The Fed Will Do So Anyway
October 28, 2019 -Check Beneath the Hood To Better Understand the Health and Path of the US Economy
September 6, 2019 -A Departure From the Past: US Labor Market to Remain Strong Even If the Economy Falters
August 23, 2019 -Trade War: Acts of Folly That Have Become Increasingly Dangerous
August 15, 2019 -Forget the Current Yield Curve; Focus Instead on the Consumer
August 2, 2019 -How Much More Can an Aging Business Cycle Take?
July 29, 2019 -Will the Fed Succumb to White House Pressure?
July 10, 2019 -A July Rate Cut By The Fed Would Be A Mistake
April 26, 2019 -The Tyranny of a Headline GDP Number
March 22, 2019 -Existing Home Sales: A Brief Respite, But Not a Recovery
February 13, 2019 -Enjoy the Mild Inflation for Now. Brace Yourself for Higher Prices Soon
February 12, 2019 -Business Optimism is in Free Fall, Yet Job Openings Hit Record High. It Makes Perfect Sense!
February 1, 2019 -With jobs and wages marching higher, how much longer can inflation remain tame?
January 30, 2019 -Confronted by swirling crosscurrents, the Fed chooses to chill out...for now
January 23, 2019 -CEA's Prediction of 4% to 5% GDP Growth in Q2. A Forecast or Prayer?
January 15, 2019 -The Government Shutdown: An Act of Human Folly With Real Consequences
January 4, 2019 -The Jobs Report Should Tone Down Recession Fears

2018

August 1, 2018 -The Real Danger to the Economy is not Short-Term Rates, But Rising Long-term Yields.
July 27, 2018 -The Economy is 'The Greatest Ever.' Aren't Massive Fiscal Deficits and Trade Wars Swell?
June 1, 2018 -A Lamborghini Economy
April 25, 2018 -A Consumer-Led Economic Slowdown is Underway,and This Could Last
April 6, 2018 -March's Disappointing Payroll Report: The Economic Winds May Be Shifting
March 9, 2018 -Desperate for workers? Yes! Willing to raise wages at attract new hires? No!
March 1, 2018 -Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum: A Blunder that Could End this Expansion
February 26, 2018 -Jerome Powell's Biggest Nightmare: A Wave of U.S. Protectionism
February 14, 2018 -Don't take the inflation scare too seriously. Weaker retail sales show consumers are more cautious.
February 2, 2018 -Wage inflation is no longer MIA. What will the Fed do now?
January 26, 2018 -GDP: 2017 Was A Good Year For the Economy, But There Are Fresh Hazards Ahead
January 22, 2018 -The Punt: Multiple Government Shutdowns Could Spell Trouble For Stocks and the Economy
January 12, 2018 -Retail Sales: A Note of Caution About Future Consumer Spending
January 5, 2018 -Ditch December's Payroll Number. The Economy's Momentum Shows No Sign of Ebbing
January 2, 2018 -ECONOMIC & GEOPOLITICAL FORECASTS FOR 2018

2017

December 19, 2017 - MEDIA ADVISORY: Release date for Economic Forecasts 2018
July 7, 2017 - Another Great Jobs Report! But Will Wage Growth Soon Accelerate? Not Likely!
May 5, 2017 -The Job Market Recovered in April--But Not Wages and That Poses a Threat to Future Growth
April 28, 2017 -Ignore Q1's GDP? Yes, But Washington Better Take Notice!
April 26, 2017 -The White House Tax Plan - A One-Page Opus
April 7, 2017 -March's weak job numbers: Do they represent the first signs of disillusionment with Washington?
March 10, 2017 -A Growing Undercurrent of Angst Accompanies A Strong Employment Report
February 15, 2017 -Will confidence in the economic outlook be punctured by the chaos in Washington?
February 1, 2017 -An Acceleration in the Pace of Fed Tightening is Now More Likely
January 30, 2017 -Will Trump's Impulsive Management Style Begin to Puncture Optimism Over His Presidency?
January 27, 2017 -U.S. Economy Enters 2017 With Momentum. But Could The White House Jeopardize It All?
January 10, 2017 -Interview with Bernard Baumohl: Institute of Supply Management

2016

December 20, 2016 -Interview with Bernard Baumohl: US News & World Report
December 14, 2016 -The Fed Flicked Up Rates Another 1/4 pt, But Don't Expect Another Hike Until Mid-2017
December 2, 2016 -Caution: The Economy Has Built Up a Head of Steam. But It May Not Last For Long!
November 9, 2016 -Trump Wins: Now What? Lots of Policy Promises---But What Will Emerge?
November 2, 2016 -Fed To Raise Rates in December --- Regardless of Who Wins the Election
October 28, 2016 -A GDP Report That Says This Business Cycle is Far From Over
September2, 2016 -The Time Has Really Come To Raise Rates!
August 5, 2016 -With the Economic Outlook Still So Murky, Companies Choose Labor Over Capital
July 22, 2016 -The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Summer, Though It Should. Blame The Election For The Delay
July 8, 2016 -Caution: June's Employment Report Can Lead To Excessive Exuberance
July 6, 2016 -We Are Living In A Period Of Epic Uncertainty and that Warrants New Forecasts for Growth
June 3, 2016 -The Trumpian Effect?
May 6, 2016 -The job market cooled in April, but do not expect the economy to do the same this quarter
February 5, 2016 -A Good Start for the Year: Latest Jobs Report Should Quash Talk of Recession.
January 29, 2016 -A Weak Final Quarter? Yes. Does It Hint of Recession in 2016? No!
January 8, 2016 -A Great Jobs Report to End the Year. So Why Is Pay Still So Anemic?
January 5, 2016 -Opportunities and Risks for the U.S. and World Economy in 2016

2015

December 16, 2015 -History is made: The Fed Finally Acts to Lift Rates
December 4, 2015 -Great Job Numbers! Now the Hard Work REALLY Begins for the Fed.
November 12, 2015 -If the Fed Does Raise Rates in December, What Happens Next?
November 6, 2015 -A Done Deal? October's Strong Employment Report Moves the Fed Closer to a Rate Hike
October 29, 2015 -Will a 1.5% GDP Growth Rate End Any Chance of a Fed Rate Increase This Year?
October 28, 2015 -A December Lift Off On Rates Looks More Likely. But Will The Yield Curve Flatten Afterwards?
October 2, 2015 -A Bleak Jobs Report That Deserves Skepticism
September 17, 2015 -The Fed is Now Data Dependent on a Global Scale
July 2, 2015 -June Payrolls: Has the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Employment Broken Down?
June 17, 2015 -Fed Remains on Hold For One Reason, Greece. End of Story!
June 11, 2015 -Waiting Until September To Raise Rates Poses New Risks For the Fed
June 9, 2015 -This Could Be A Long Hot Summer For The Fed
June 6, 2015 -After a Dismal 1st Quarter, It Did Not Take Long For The Economy To Bounce Back
June 1, 2015 -A Cascade of Economic Indicators This Week Will Shed Light On The Broad Outlook
May 13, 2015 -Weak Retail Sales Casts A Brief Shadow Over The Economy
May 5, 2015 -March Trade Deficit Widened, But Exporters Have Reasons to Be Optimistic
April 30, 2015 -Do Not Dismiss June Just Yet for the Fed to Lift Rates
April 29, 2015 -1Q 2015: An Economy in Winter Hibernation
April 16, 2015 -Housing Starts Inches Higher in March, But Prepare For A Real Breakout!
April 14, 2015 -Look Beyond the Weak Data From Winter: This Economy is Now Shifting Into Faster Gear
April 9, 2015 -Weekly Economic Reports Should Now Be in the Spotlight
April 3, 2015 -Barron's
March 30, 2015 -Economic Rebound: With Winter A Distant Memory, Prepare for a Stronger Spring and Summer
March 27, 2015 -Trouble in the Middle East---A Potential Spoiler for the Global Economy?
March 18, 2015 -A Few Observations About The FOMC Meeting And Press Conference---And Then Some
March 17, 2015 -Starbucks Needed At The Fed: The Danger of Being Lulled To Sleep By Low Inflation
January 14, 2015 -Where were consumers last month? And why is that not even important!
January 9, 2015 -Hiring still going strong. Bet on wages to rebound too in coming months.

2014

December 23, 2014 -Economy Ends The Year Strong. But Will It Get The Fed To Act Sooner?
December 17, 2014 -A Fed Statement That Appears Trapped More In The Past Than One Prepared For The Future
December 5, 2014 -Ending the Year With Some Economic Fireworks
November 19, 2014 -What To Make of the Latest Federal Reserve Minutes?
November 14, 2014 -Retail Sales Outperform---But We Also Have a Warning
November 7, 2014 -Takeaways From the Employment Report
October 31, 2014 -Higher Worker Pay and Consumer Confidence Suggest The Job Of The Fed Is Done
October 29, 2014 -QE Is History, And Rightfully So. What To Focus On Next?
October 3, 2014 -September Jobs and Pay: Back on Track and Likely to Remain So
September 17, 2014 -The Yellen Fed Chose (Again) to Punt the Ball
September 12, 2014 -A Preponderance of Solid Reports Say the Economy Can Absorb Higher Rates
September 10, 2014 -Federal Reserve to Lift Rates Sooner Than Expected, But Not To Worry
September 5, 2014 -Focus on Real Pay Increases and the Plethora of Other Solid Economic Reports
July 3, 2014 -A Most Important Caveat to the June Jobs Story
June 17, 2014 -A Change in Forecast
May 9, 2014 -Are Eco--skeptics Losing Their Grip On Reality?
May 2, 2014 -April Job Report: The US is On Approach to a Self-Sustaining Economic Expansion
April 10, 2014 -Data Results: US Economy at an Inflection Point
April 4, 2014 -With the Slippery Winter Now History, the Economy is Picking Up Traction Again
March 19, 2014 -The Fed: Steady As She Goes, With Some Clarifications--and One Slight Slip
March 13, 2014 -Troubling Events in Russia and China are Still Overshadowing A Healthier US Economy
March 7, 2014 -With winter winding down, job creation is gearing up again. But will Russia and China wreck it all?
January 29, 2014 -A fairly benign FOMC statement. But Yellen will now have her hands full.
January 21, 2014 -Can You Have Low Treasury Yields AND A Stronger Economy?
January 14, 2014 -A Trifecta: Rising Retail Sales, Dormant Inflation and Small Business Optimism
January 10, 2014 -December's Employment Report: What Is The Real Story About Jobs?
January 7, 2014 -Summary Economic Outlook For 2014: What Could Also Go Wrong?

2013

November 8, 2013 -October's Employment Report: Jobs, The Economy & The Effects Of The Government Shutdown
November 7, 2013 -Preliminary 3rdQ GDP Report Was OK, But It Doesn't Merit A Cheer
October 30, 2013 -Fed Stays The Course, But The Economic Outlook Is About to Brighten
October 24, 2013 -The Economic Clouds Are Lifting
October 22, 2013 -Business More Inclined to Tune out Washington and Focus on the Real Economy
October 1, 2013 -Briefing update: The Government Shutdown & Debt Ceiling
September 27, 2013 -Personal Income and Spending: Consumers Are Ready To Ramp Up Spending If...
September 25, 2013 -A Housing Recovery That Can Last
August 2, 2013 -A strong private economy--- but weak job numbers. What's really going in the labor market?
July 31, 2013 -Benchmark GDP Revisions, the ADP Employment Report, and the Implications for QE
July 30, 2013 -Is a Housing Bubble in the Works? Larry Summers at the Fed?
July 22, 2013 -WSJ's Interview with Bernard Baumohl
June 26, 2013 -GDP 1Q: So Much Liquidity, Yet So Little To Show For It.
May 31, 2013 -What's Really Behind April's Weak Personal Income & Spending Numbers?
May 30, 2013 -A Respectable GDP Report: Solid Private Sector Growth With Less Government Spending
May 16, 2013 -Making Sense of a Mixed Bag of Economic Reports
May 13, 2013 -Fresh Data Suggests The Economy Is On The Precipice of Faster Growth
April 6, 2013 -What To Really Take Away from the March Jobs Report
March 13, 2013 -Robust consumer spending even as unemployment remains elevated. An interesting paradox.
March 8, 2013 -Jump in Hiring Reflects A Robust Private Economy
March 1, 2013 -U.S. Economy Shows No Sign of Buckling Under---Sequester or No Sequester
February 21, 2013 -Housing and Consumers Will Offset The Sequester. But Beware of Gas Prices and Geopolitics.
February 13, 2013 -Don't Write Off the Consumer!
February 1, 2013 -This Could Be a Breakout Year for the Economy, in spite of Washington
January 30, 2013 -Dismiss the 4Q GDP. Economy to show surprising growth in 2013
January 2, 2013 -From A Fiscal Cliff To A Bungee Chord Economy

2012

December 12, 2012 -A High Octane QE 4
December 7, 2012 -A Dubious Employment Report
November 29, 2012 -A Hollow GDP for the 3rd quarter. But Stay Tuned...
November 7, 2012 -With The Election Over, A Deal To End The Fiscal Cliff Threat Is Now Likely
November 2, 2012 -Hiring Has Shifted Into Faster Gear
October 26, 2012 -It's The GDP Mouse That Roared
October 24, 2012 -All signs point to a genuine housing recovery. But threats still lurk.
October 23, 2012 -Romney vs. Obama: How will a Bernanke departure affect the economy?
October 19, 2012 -Threat of a fiscal cliff is diminishing. Economic growth to be markedly stronger in 2013.
October 5, 2012 -Employment May Be At An Inflection Point
October 3, 2012 -Conference Slides: Post Election Economy
September 13, 2012 -So Much Monetary Buzz, So Little Consequence
September 11, 2012 -QE 3: An Unnecessary Risk for the Fed and Economy
September 7, 2012 -A Lackluster Jobs Report: We're Surprised So Many Were Surprised
September 6, 2012 -A Fed Up Mario Draghi Is Ready To Have The ECB Take The Lead
September 4, 2012 -No Surprise that Manufacturing and Construction Turn More Cautious
January 3, 2012 -ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR 2012

2011

November 17, 2011 -Signs Emerge Of A Stronger Economy. But Can It Really Last?
November 15, 2011 -Expect a Decent Holiday Shopping Season But Without the Jolly
November 10, 2011 -A Knock Out Blow: European Debt Defaults and Triple-Digit Oil Prices
November 3, 2011 -It Is Risk-off When Visibility On Europe's Future Is Zero
November 2, 2011 -Flash Note: Fed Stands Pat Even Though Its Projections Worsen
October 27, 2011 -Growth Recession in the US, and Comic Relief from Europe
October 19, 2011 -Inflation is Heating Up, Not Cooling Down.
October 14, 2011 -Retail Sales Gets Stronger. Are Consumers Really Coming Back?
September 21, 2011 -Is it smart monetary policy, or a crapshoot?
September 20, 2011 -What is Next From the Fed? Does it Even Matter?
September 15, 2011 -New Economic Numbers Show the Recovery May Soon Be History
May 6, 2011 -Can job growth accelerate much more when the economy is losing steam?
April 26, 2011 -Bernanke Press Conference: A Clever Strategy, But One Unlikely To Create New Headlines
April 15, 2011 -Inflation Expectations Are On The Rise. Is the Fed Reacting Too Slowly?
April 13, 2011 -Behind the Consumer Spending Numbers. Just How Resilient Are Shoppers?
April 6, 2011 -The Strange Case For Monetary Tightening: The US and the Eurozone
April 1, 2011 -Is The Upturn In Job Growth Sustainable?
March 24, 2011 -Nerves Force Consumers and Businesses To Turn More Cautious
March 17, 2011 -The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
March 15, 2011 -A Time To Reassess
March 4, 2011 -February Job Numbers Show Companies Are In A Holding Pattern
March 2, 2011 -Growing Middle East Unrest Heightens Risks to the U.S. Recovery
February 24, 2011 -Could $100 to $150 Oil Be The New Normal?
February 23, 2011 -The Geopolitical Eruptions Will Slow U.S. Economic Growth
January 7, 2011 -Whiplash: ADP Saw Massive Rise In December Payrolls; The Government Found Far Less
January 3, 2011 -ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR 2011

2010

December 23, 2010 -Ending The Year On A Strong Note
December 22, 2010 -Deflation Haunts Fed Policymakers and That Can Be Dangerous
December 16, 2010 -The Fed and Bond Investors: Are they Now On A Collision Course?
December 14, 2010 -Flash Note: What Were They Thinking?
December 14, 2010 -The Economy Has Finally Achieved Escape Velocity
December 8, 2010 -Flash Note: A Warning Shot From The Bond Vigilantes
December 3, 2010 -The November Employment Report Fails The Smell Test
November 24, 2010 -Finally, A Thanksgiving With An Economy Moving In The Right Direction
November 15, 2010 -Retail Sales Beats Forecasts: Will QE2 Soon Be History?
November 10, 2010 -Initial Reaction To The Deficit Reduction Proposals
November 5, 2010 -Lots of Positive Economic News Lately. So Do We Still Need QE 2?
November 1, 2010 -A Decent Start To A Busy Week Of Economic Numbers
October 29, 2010 -GDP: An Encouraging First Peak Shows Consumers Are Ramping up Spending
October 8, 2010 -September Jobs: Depressing Numbers...and Some Intriguing Clues
September 14, 2010 -They are BACK! The Consumer is Healthier and Gearing Up to Spend
September 3, 2010 -The Pause Is Over As the Economy Gradually Picks Up Momentum
September 1, 2010 -It's Time for the Economic Bears To Exit Stage Left
July 14, 2010 -Soft Retail Sales and Weak Business Spending: A Brief Pause in the Recovery
July 2, 2010 -Is the Economic Medicine Working?Yes, But It Can Only Go So Far In Terms of Job Creation
June 29, 2010 -So Just What Are Consumers Thinking?
June 28, 2010 -Personal Income & Spending: A Good Start to a Data-Filled Week
June 25, 2010 -FINREG: The Re-Shaping of Financial Institutions In a CreditStarved Economy
June 23, 2010 -Economy & Housing: Withdrawal Pains Begin From a Tax Credit Fix
June 21, 2010 -China Unshackles the RMB: Much Ado About Nothing?
June 17, 2010 -Is the Labor Market Improving or Not?
April 2, 2010 -March Jobs: Companies Are Cautiously Hiring Again
March 30, 2010 -�Luck is the Residue of Design�
March 16, 2010 -A Few Brief Thoughts About Today�s Fed Decision
March 12, 2010 -Shopping Through the Blizzards
March 5, 2010 -February Jobs: Getting the Right Perspective
February 23, 2010 -How Real is the Drop in February Confidence?
February 17, 2010 -The Economic Momentum Keeps Building
February 5, 2010 -Deciphering the January Employment Report
January 29, 2010 -The Economy Exited 2009 On a High Note
January 8, 2010 -What�s With That December Employment Report?
January 4, 2010 -ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR 2010

2009

December 16, 2009 -A Benign Inflation Report. Congress Has a Seat on the FOMC
December 11, 2009 -Consumers are Back! But are Banks?!
December 4, 2009 -Employment Surprise. Was November a Rogue Month? No!
December 3, 2009 -Good News on Claims & Productivity ---and Forget About ISM Services
December 1, 2009 -U.S. Recovery Continues, While Dubai Fades Into the Background
November 27, 2009 -The Dubai World Scare Will be Short-Lived
November 25, 2009 -Best Thanksgiving Economy in Three Years
November 16, 2009 -The Recovery Gathers More Steam
November 6, 2009 -The 10.2% Jobless Rate Was Awful, But What Does The Report Say About The Future
November 4, 2009 -What Is Needed To See More Jobs?
November 2, 2009 -A Good Start For The 4th Quarter
October 29, 2009 -GDP: The U.S. Economy Is Back! (�with government help, of course)
October 15, 2009 -More Evidence of Recovery, While Inflation Sleeps
October 14, 2009 -Consumers Are Emerging From Hibernation
October 2, 2009 -September Jobs: It�s Bad, But Not All Is Bleak
September 25, 2009 -New York Times - Opinion: Will U.S. Prudence Force China's Hand?
September 23, 2009 -The Fed Says Economic Activity Has �Picked Up.� So Is It Time To Tighten?
September 17, 2009 -Housing Improves (A Little)-- And Americans Are (Slightly) Wealthier
September 15, 2009 -It's All Up To The Consumer At This Point (and the flow of credit)
September 10, 2009 -Jobless Claims & Trade Deficit -- A Decaffeinated Recovery
September 4, 2009 -August Jobs: Grab The Jeweler's Loupe To See a Recovery
September 3, 2009 -Beware: August�s Jobs Report Could Be A Sleeper
September 1, 2009 -September Begins With Promising Economic Reports
August 7, 2009 -Good News on Employment Joins Other Upbeat Reports This Week
August 3, 2009 -ISM and Construction Spending Throttle Up the Economy�s Engines
July 31, 2009 -The Economic Nightmare Has Ended. Now Comes a Jagged V-Shaped Recovery
July 29, 2009 -Core Orders For Durable Goods Say Recovery Is On Track
July 23, 2009 -Recovery On Track as Jobless Claims Drop and Home Sales Pick Up
July 17, 2009 -Residential Real Estate On The Mend
July 16, 2009 -You Call This a Recovery?
July 2, 2009 -Employment, Jobless Benefits & Factory Orders: Recovery On Track
July 1, 2009 -Lots of Mixed Economic Reports -- But ISM Tells the Real Story
June 30, 2009 -The Debate Has Shifted: Prepare for Stronger Growth
March 27, 2009 -End Of Recession Is In Sight. But What�s Next?
March 17, 2009 -Mounting Evidence The Economy is Switching Gears
March 12, 2009 -Jump In Ex-Autos Retail Sales Trumps Jobless Claims
March 6, 2009 -Jobs: From Bad�to Worse� to Awful�to Disasterous
Feb. 27, 2009 -GDP Shocker
Feb. 25, 2009 -Focus on the Right Data Point � Home Inventories
Feb. 18, 2009 -Home Starts Were Poor, But A Bottom May Be Near
Feb. 6, 2009 -A Horrific January Jobs Report. But What�s Really Going On?
Jan. 30, 2009 -The Smaller Drop in GDP is Deceiving
Jan. 26, 2009 -Some Good News on Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
Jan. 22, 2009 -The Party is Over; Now Comes the Economic Hangover
Jan. 16, 2009 -Deflation Is Barely a Blip On the Radar
Jan. 15, 2009 -Is the Economic Contraction Beginning to Slow?
Jan. 14, 2009 -Signs of Life Fading: A look at Sales, Prices,and Inventories
Jan. 9, 2009 -The Jobs Report: An Economic Package Now Turns Urgent
Jan. 7, 2009 -Brace Yourself: Some Awful Job Numbers Are On the Way
Jan. 5, 2009 -Construction Spending: The Government Gets More Active
Jan. 2, 2009 -What Do the ISM Numbers Tell Us About 2009?

Special Publications

September 14, 2008 -ANALYSIS: Economic Consequences of an Israel-Iran Conflict
NABE (October 2004) -Economic Forecasting and Terrorism
Seminar Outline Agenda -Seminar Agenda