The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2022 | II 2022 | III 2022 | IV 2022 | I 2023 | II 2023 | III 2023 | IV 2023 | I 2024 | II 2024 | III 2024 | IV 2024 | I 2025 | II 2025 | III 2025 | IV 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | -2.0 | -0.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||
| PCE % | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||||||
| CPI % | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||||||
| 561 | 329 | 423 | 291 | 297 | 201 | 266 | 225 | 175 | 170 | 185 | 200 | 200 | 210 | 215 | 225 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.32 | 2.97 | 3.80 | 3.83 | 3.47 | 3.82 | 4.57 | 4.25 | 4.10 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 3.95 | 4.10 | 4.15 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 0.38 | 1.63 | 3.13 | 4.38 | 4.88 | 5.13 | 5.38 | 5.38 | 5.38 | 5.38 | 4.88 | 4.88 | 4.38 | 3.88 | 3.38 | 3.38 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | -2.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -10.4 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Canada | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | -5.1 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | -5.9 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | -3.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | -0.3 | -8.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -1.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | -2.7 | 5.6 | -2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | --3.0 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | End 2023 | End 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 109 | 104 | 115 | 131 | 148 | 132 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | End 2023 | End 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 67 | 52 | 78 | 85 | 96 | 86 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.30 | 3.38 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 3.45 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| HIGH | US economy slows to between 1% - 1.75% in 1H 2024 before accelerating above 2% in 2H. Recession odds: 35%. |
| Moderate | Expect Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates by summer 2024 as inflation nears the 2% target. |
| HIGH | Geopolitical assumption 1: War in Middle East to be contained and NOT fully engulf Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. |
| Moderate | Geopolitical assumption 2: Military attrition & Russian fatigue leads to cease fire and negotiations to end Ukraine war in 2024. |
| HIGH | Treasury 10-yr. yield to slide below 4% in 2H 2024, then hover between 3.75% to 4.50% late 2024 & 2025. |
| HIGH | Labor shortage eases in U.S. but employers remain reluctant to layoff workers thru 2024 as economy avoids recession. |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | China's efforts to revive its economy will promote faster growth (5% to 7% pace) by mid 2024. |
| Moderate | Vladimir Putin liklely to win Presidency in faux March 2024 elections, but it may lead to social unrest in Russia. |
| HIGH | Beijing fortifies naval presence in South China Sea and Taiwan Strait to counter US political support of Taiwan. |
| HIGH | China seeks to keep U.S. bogged down in Ukraine in hopes it will reduce US presence in Indo-Pacific region. |
| Moderate | OPEC+ production cuts to be offset in 2024 by greater non-OPEC output and stabilize WTI in $80 to $90 bbl range. |
| HIGH | Tensions seen increasing between China and India and may lead to fresh border skirmishes in 2024. |
| HIGH | Global economy to rebound in 2H 2024 as the major central banks begin to lower rates. |