Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024 I 2025 II 2025 III 2025 IV 2025
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -2.0 -0.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 5.2 2.1 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.9 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 0.0 2.0 1.6 1.2 3.8 0.8 3.6 2.3 0.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.9
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 8.5 8.9 8.2 6.4 5.0 3.1 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
561 329 423 291 297 201 266 225 175 170 185 200 200 210 215 225
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.32 2.97 3.80 3.83 3.47 3.82 4.57 4.25 4.10 3.95 3.95 3.85 3.80 3.95 4.10 4.15
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.38 1.63 3.13 4.38 4.88 5.13 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 4.88 4.88 4.38 3.88 3.38 3.38

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 -2.2 5.8 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.5
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.7 3.5 0.8 1.3 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 -10.4 8.7 4.3 0.3 1.0 1.3
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.0 2.0 0.9 1.6
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.1 5.0 3.4 1.5 1.3 1.8
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 4.0 -5.9 9.2 7.3 6.4 6.2 6.6
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.5 3.0 4.8 4.6 5.1
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 -3.6 5.3 3.0 3.1 2.2 3.1
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.3 -8.8 6.1 3.9 3.3 2.2 2.7
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.7 1.7 1.5 2.6
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -2.1 2.5 1.4 2.0
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 --3.0 6.2 3.1 2.3 2.0 2.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 131 148 132
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.06 1.11

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (U.S. average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 85 96 86
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.30 3.38 3.20 3.75 3.45

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2023

  • Latest revision: October 14, 2023
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH US economy slows to between 1% - 1.75% in 1H 2024 before accelerating above 2% in 2H. Recession odds: 35%.
    Moderate Expect Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates by summer 2024 as inflation nears the 2% target.
    HIGH Geopolitical assumption 1: War in Middle East to be contained and NOT fully engulf Hezbollah, Syria and Iran.
    Moderate Geopolitical assumption 2: Military attrition & Russian fatigue leads to cease fire and negotiations to end Ukraine war in 2024.
    HIGH Treasury 10-yr. yield to slide below 4% in 2H 2024, then hover between 3.75% to 4.50% late 2024 & 2025.
    HIGH Labor shortage eases in U.S. but employers remain reluctant to layoff workers thru 2024 as economy avoids recession.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH China's efforts to revive its economy will promote faster growth (5% to 7% pace) by mid 2024.
    Moderate Vladimir Putin liklely to win Presidency in faux March 2024 elections, but it may lead to social unrest in Russia.
    HIGH Beijing fortifies naval presence in South China Sea and Taiwan Strait to counter US political support of Taiwan.
    HIGH China seeks to keep U.S. bogged down in Ukraine in hopes it will reduce US presence in Indo-Pacific region.
    Moderate OPEC+ production cuts to be offset in 2024 by greater non-OPEC output and stabilize WTI in $80 to $90 bbl range.
    HIGH Tensions seen increasing between China and India and may lead to fresh border skirmishes in 2024.
    HIGH Global economy to rebound in 2H 2024 as the major central banks begin to lower rates.