Key Economic Forecasts: NEXT UPDATE - October 14, 2025

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2025 II 2025 III 2025 IV 2025 I 2026 II 2026 III 2026 IV 2026 I 2027 II 2027 III 2027 IV 2027 I 2028 II 2028 III 2028 IV 2028
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -0.6 3.8 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.3
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 0.6 2.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.5 0.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
111 64 20 35 5 40 60 65 105 110 115 120 125 130 140 145
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
4.25 4.23 4.15 3.95 3.85 4.00 4.25 4.20 4.40 4.45 4.40 4.20 4.20 4.15 4.30 4.10
Federal funds rate % (mid-point, end of period):
4.38 4.38 4.13 3.88 3.88 3.38 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.6 -2.2 6.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.6
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.7 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.5
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 -10.4 8.7 4.3 0.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.0 1.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.1 5.0 3.4 1.1 1.5 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.4
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 4.0 -5.9 9.2 7.2 7.7 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.8
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.5 3.0 5.2 5.0 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.0
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 -3.6 5.3 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.2
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.3 -8.8 6.1 3.9 3.2 1.5 -0.2 1.6 2.2 2.4
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -1.2 3.6 4.1 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.1
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 -3.0 6.2 3.0 2.7 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024 End 2025 End 2026 End 2027 End 2028
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 131 141 157 139 135 133 130
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.10 1.03 1.12 1.14 1.14 1.16

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (U.S. average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024 End 2025 End 2026 End 2027 End 2028
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 85 77 71 73 74 77 79
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.30 3.38 3.20 3.12 3.04 3.05 3.20 3.25 3.25

Below: Economic & Geopolitical Assumptions Below Updated Quarterly: (Next update October 14, 2025)

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH The risk of stagflation (weaker economic growth, yet higher inflation) has increased and it will squeeze corporate margins in 2H 2025.
HIGH Sources of higher inflation comes from greater import duties (tariffs) and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
HIGH To protect profit margins, we expect companies will gradually accelerate layoffs, and scale back orders for inventories and CAPEX.
Moderate Record consumer debt + high interest rates + concerns about the economy & employment will curb household spending in 2H 2025.
HIGH Trump to retreat from his tariff & trade policies if he fears it will bring major GOP losses in 2026 midterm elections.
Moderate Trump to nominate this summer a more dovish (and W.H. compliant) Federal Reserve leader once Powell's term ends May 2026.
FOREIGN
HIGH Tensions in the Middle East to remain high as evidence shows Israel and the US failed to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities.
HIGH We expect Iran will quit the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and move with even greater speed to become a nuclear military power.
Moderate Israel's goal differs from the US: Israel seeks regime change in Iran; the US may focus on "peace" and OK minimal enrichment capability.
HIGH Russia will not alter its attacks on Ukraine even as the West applies more restrictive sanctions.
Moderate China continues to ratchet up tensions over Taiwan. Pressure builds on the US to beef up its military presence in the SCS.
HIGH BRIC nations and other emerging economies take more concrete steps to reduce reliance on the US dollar in world trade.
Moderate China views India its main economic competitor; this may lead to fresh border clashes between two nuclear powers in 2025/2026.