Key Economic Forecasts

United States

	I 2018	II 2018	III 2018	IV 2018	I 2019	II 2019	III 2019	IV 2019	I 2020	II 2020	III 2020	IV 2020	I 2021	II 2021	III 2021	IV 2021
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
%	2.2	4.2	3.4	2.2	3.1	1.6	1.9	2.0	1.3	2.0	1.8	2.0	2.2	2.4	2.5	2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE %	0.5	3.8	3.5	2.5	0.9	1.7	1.3	1.9	1.2	1.9	1.7	2.0	2.0	2.7	2.8	3.1
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI %	2.4	2.9	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.6	2.1	2.3	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.7	2.7	3.7
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
%	4.1	4.0	3.7	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.6	3.5	3.8	3.9	4.0	4.2	4.1	4.0	4.0	3.9
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
	228	243	189	233	174	171	165	155	125	115	105	100	115	125	155	165
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
	2.74	2.85	3.06	2.76	2.42	2.00	2.30	2.20	2.15	2.35	2.45	2.85	3.20	3.50	4.10	4.40
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
	1.63	1.88	2.13	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.13	1.88	1.88	1.88	1.88	1.88	2.13	2.38	2.63	2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
US	2.6	1.6	2.2	1.8	2.5	2.9	1.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	1.8	2.4
Eurozone	1.7	1.4	-0.9	-0.3	1.2	1.6	1.7	2.5	1.9	1.3	1.4	1.8
United Kingdom	1.7	0.7	0.3	1.8	2.9	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.4	1.4	0.8	1.6
Japan	4.6	-0.4	1.6	1.5	-0.1	1.1	1.0	1.9	0.8	0.5	0.4	1.1
Canada	3.1	3.1	1.7	2.2	2.5	0.9	1.4	3.0	1.9	1.5	1.3	2.2
India	8.4	8.6	6.7	4.9	7.4	8.0	8.1	7.2	6.8	6.8	6.5	7.3
China	10.5	9.5	7.8	7.7	7.3	6.9	6.7	6.8	6.6	6.2	5.9	6.5
Brazil	7.5	2.7	0.9	2.3	0.1	-3.5	-3.5	1.4	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.7
Mexico	5.2	4.0	3.9	1.4	2.3	2.7	2.9	2.1	2.0	1.3	0.9	2.1
Australia	2.8	2.6	3.6	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.0	1.8	2.6
Russia	4.0	4.3	3.4	1.3	0.6	-2.8	-0.2	1.6	2.5	2.0	1.8	2.4
World	4.2	3.0	2.6	2.9	3.0	2.8	2.6	3.3	3.2	3.0	2.7	3.3

Key Currency Values

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019	End 2020	End 2021
USD/Yen	91	93	81	77	87	105	119	120	117	113	110	112	109	105
Euro/USD	1.40	1.43	1.34	1.29	1.32	1.37	1.21	1.09	1.05	1.20	1.14	1.11	1.13	1.18

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019	End 2020	End 2021
Crude oil per barrel	46	78	95	107	111	111	58	38	49	67	54	57	47	66
Gasoline	1.61	2.57	3.00	3.27	3.30	3.32	2.26	2.00	2.31	2.47	2.26	2.32	2.21	2.45

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020

PROBABILITY	U.S.
HIGH	U.S. settles on interim trade deal with China in 2H 2019. Threat of a broader tariffs recedes.
HIGH	Strains emerge between Trump and USTR Lighthizer as China hawks in WH lose influence.
Moderate	Fed expected to reduce rates twice in 2nd half of 2019, each 25 basis points. No cuts seen in 2020.
HIGH	10 Yr. Treasury yield rebounds sharply in 2020 as investor appetite for US federal debt decreases.
HIGH	U.S. firms slow CAP EX in 2019 given global economic slowdown, trade tensions and record corp. debt.
Moderate	U.S. economy suffers a two-quarter contraction by 2020.
	FOREIGN
HIGH	Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new elections are planned.
HIGH	China successfully arrests economic slowdown by using selective stimulus.
Moderate	Risk of military confrontation in South China Sea escalates as US increases naval presence.
HIGH	Terrorist attempts to sabotage Saudi oil infrastructure increases in 2019. Oil prices climb.
HIGH	Iran counters U.S. sanctions by taking actions that raise tensions in the Middle East.
HIGH	Boris Johnson most likely to be next PM; Will pull UK out of EU by October with or without deal.
Moderate	Global demand for US WTI oil rises as conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts shipments of crude.