Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -5.0 --31.4 33.4 4.1 3.1 4.1 4.6 5.5 3.1 6.2 5.5 4.8 2.8 3.8 3.1 2.9
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % -6.9 -33.2 41.0 2.4 3.8 5.2 4.7 6.0 2.4 5.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 2.8 3.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.4 11.1 7.8 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.1
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
-303 -4,427 1,322 283 322 385 370 380 270 285 265 240 185 225 235 250
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
0.63 0.65 0.68 0.91 1.38 1.42 1.60 1.70 1.82 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.90 2.05 2.00 2.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 0.88 1.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -3.5 4.3 5.2 3.2
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -6.8 3.3 2.5 2.0
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -9.9 4.4 4.6 3.1
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -4.8 2.4 2.8 2.2
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.1 5.4 3.4 2.9
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -8.2 9.1 6.4 5.7
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.3 6.9 5.7 5.6
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -4.1 2.9 2.7 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -8.3 3.3 2.8 2.7
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -4.2 2.5 3.0 2.7
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -3.1 2.4 3.3 2.0
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 -4.2 4.4 4.2 3.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 103 100 100
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.28

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 60 50 48
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.46 2.20 2.17

Economic & Geopolitical Probabilities for 2021 & 2022

  • Projections made: February 15, 2021
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Pres. Biden and a Democratically-controlled Congress to pass $1.7 - 1.9 trillion aid by March 2021.
    Moderate Covid-19 vaccinations will not reach 75% of US population before 4th quarter 2021.
    Moderate Combination of fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and robust consumer spending to produce a temporary pop in inflation.
    HIGH Expect the Federal Reserve to look past this transient increase in inflation in 2021. No rate hike seen before 2023.
    HIGH The Fed will gradually scale back asset purchases in IVQ 2021 as new economic cycle takes hold.
    HIGH Covid-19 likely to become an endemic pathogen. Will be constrained annually by vaccine, like the flu.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH China expands drilling in SCS and ratchets up tensions with both Taiwan and Hong Kong.
    Moderate Pres. Biden orders larger US naval presence in SCS to defend the International Law of the Sea.
    Moderate Pres. Biden raises sanctions against Russia for its persistent cyberattacks and extrajudicial killings.
    HIGH A full scale cyber World War escalates and may disrupt global financial networks and power grids.
    HIGH Middle East tensions to surge as Iran further enriches uranium and restricts IAEA inspections.
    Moderate Vaccinations among emerging countries will not reach herd immunity until 2023.
    HIGH Biden to reset trade relations with Europe, but is in no rush to reverse tariffs placed on Chinese imports.