Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.5 3.5 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.7 4.0 3.5 1.4 1.1 4.6 2.9 1.8 2.2 3.0 1.9 3.4 2.7 3.8 3.0 4.1
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.7
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
228 243 189 233 174 152 188 155 140 140 125 125 135 155 160 165
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.74 2.85 3.06 2.76 2.42 2.00 1.65 1.80 1.85 1.70 2.00 2.25 2.70 3.10 3.80 4.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.38 2.38 1.88 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.3 2.6
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.8 1.2 1.8
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.0
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.7
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.1 2.4
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.6 7.3
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.8
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.4 1.1 0.5 1.3 1.9
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 0.2 1.0 2.2
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.6
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.4 2.2
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 105 110 104
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.18

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 55 60 64
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.32 2.40 2.45

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020
PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH US and China to reach an interim agreement on trade by mid-2020. Financial markets reacts positively.
HIGH Higher tariffs on Chinese imports slows US economy. Trump pressures the Fed to cut rates further.
Moderate Fed to lower rates three times of 2019, each 25 basis points. No cuts foreseen in 2020.
HIGH 10 Yr. Treasury yield climbs in 2020 as investor appetite for US government debt wanes.
HIGH U.S. firms slow CAP EX thru 2020 due to global economic slowdown and trade tensions.
Low U.S. economy suffers a recession by end of 2020.
FOREIGN
HIGH Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2020; new elections are planned.
HIGH China sends paramilitary into Hong Kong to quash pro-democracy protests.
HIGH Foreign adversary launches cyber attack that paralyzes parts of US economy.
Moderate Iran proceeds to enrich uranium toward 20%. Risks increase of a military response by US or Israel.
Moderate India and Pakistan clash over Kashmir. Both nuclear-armed countries edge closer to war.
HIGH New UK elections likely as PM Boris Johnson counters efforts to delay passage of latest BREXIT deal.
Moderate Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf pushes WTI oil price higher, even as global demand for crude falters.