Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.2 3.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.3 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 0.5 3.8 3.5 1.4 1.1 4.3 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.8 3.1
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.7
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
228 243 189 233 174 171 165 155 125 115 105 100 115 125 155 165
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.74 2.85 3.06 2.76 2.42 2.00 2.30 2.20 2.15 2.35 2.45 2.85 3.20 3.50 4.10 4.40
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.13 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.8 2.4
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.8
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.6
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.1
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.3 2.2
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.5 7.3
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.5
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.9 2.1
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.6
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.4
World 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.3

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 112 109 105
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.18

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 57 47 66
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.32 2.21 2.45

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020
PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH China to stall on trade talks until after US presidential election.
HIGH Higher tariffs on Chinese imports slows US economy. Trump pressures the Fed to cut rates further.
Moderate Fed expected to reduce rates twice in 2nd half of 2019, each 25 basis points. No cuts seen in 2020.
HIGH 10 Yr. Treasury yield rebounds sharply in 2020 as investor appetite for US federal debt decreases.
HIGH U.S. firms slow CAP EX in 2019 given global economic slowdown, trade tensions and record corp. debt.
Moderate U.S. economy suffers a recession by end of 2020.
FOREIGN
HIGH Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new elections are planned.
HIGH China successfully arrests economic slowdown by using selective stimulus.
Moderate Risk of military confrontation in South China Sea escalates as US increases naval presence.
HIGH Terrorist attempts to sabotage Saudi oil infrastructure increases in 2019. Oil prices climb.
HIGH Iran counters U.S. sanctions by taking actions that raise tensions in the Middle East.
HIGH Boris Johnson's willingness to accept a no-deal BREXIT will depress UK economy and pound.
Moderate Global demand for US WTI oil rises as conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts shipments of crude.