The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2019 | II 2019 | III 2019 | IV 2019 | I 2020 | II 2020 | III 2020 | IV 2020 | I 2021 | II 2021 | III 2021 | IV 2021 | I 2022 | II 2022 | III 2022 | IV 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | -5.0 | --32.9 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||
| PCE % | 1.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.6 | -6.9 | -34.6 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||||||
| CPI % | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||||||
| 174 | 152 | 188 | 210 | -142 | -4,429 | -250 | 280 | 780 | 765 | 550 | 1,100 | 650 | 320 | 650 | 850 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.42 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 1.88 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.38 | 1.40 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.38 | 2.38 | 1.88 | 1.63 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.63 | 1.13 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | -6.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -8.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -10.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -5.2 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Canda | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -7.6 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.2 | -4.4 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -6.6 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -9.1 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -6.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -7.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -4.7 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 109 | 111 | 109 | 105 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 67 | 32 | 37 | 48 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.05 | 2.25 | 2.30 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Second wave of Covid-19 will lead to another, though milder economic shutdown in 2H 2020. |
| HIGH | Without an extension of the $600/wk enhanced unemployment benefit, a double-dip recession is likely. |
| Moderate | 10 yr.T-note yield slowly climbs in 2021 and 2022 as investors diversify into European and EM markets. |
| HIGH | Business CAP EX delayed as coronavirus, oil price weakness, US elections cloud the economic outlook. |
| HIGH | Prepare for a protracted contested US presidential election. Recovery and financial markets to stall. |
| HIGH | US - China relations in free fall over trade, Covid-19, Hong Kong and US campaign rhetoric. |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | China takes full advantage of US distractions over the Covid-19 and November elections. |
| HIGH | Xi Jinping ramps up China's military actions on its western border and in SC Sea |
| HIGH | Russia finds opportunity to move against Belarus, Ukraine and bolster ties with Venezuela. |
| Moderate | Foreign adversaries launch cyber attack to affect US presidential election. |
| Moderate | Iranian citizens tire of dismal economy and Coronavirus. More civil unrest expected. |
| Moderate | Border tensions among India, China and Pakistan raise the risk of new military conflict. |
| HIGH | With UK out of the EU, talks on their future economic relationship will extend beyond 2020. |