Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -5.0 --31.4 33.4 2.2 2.6 4.8 5.6 6.3 3.1 5.2 4.7 4.4 2.8 3.8 3.1 2.9
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % -6.9 -33.2 41.0 2.1 2.2 4.4 4.5 5.8 2.4 5.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 2.8 3.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.4 11.1 7.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.1
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
-303 -4,427 1,322 283 322 385 370 380 270 285 265 240 185 225 235 250
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
0.63 0.65 0.68 0.91 1.17 1.29 1.48 1.70 1.82 2.02 2.11 2.15 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.16
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 0.88 1.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

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Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -2.8 4.8 4.4 3.2
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -8.8 3.5 2.5 2.0
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -10.3 3.9 4.2 3.1
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -5.2 2.4 2.8 2.2
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.8 5.4 3.4 2.9
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -8.8 9.9 6.4 5.7
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.36.2 5.7
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -6.0 2.9 2.7 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -9.6 3.3 2.8 2.7
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -3.9 2.5 3.0 2.7
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -4.9 2.4 3.3 2.0
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 -3.8 4.7 4.2 3.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 103 106 102 100
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.19 1.25 1.28

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 60 50 48
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.46 2.20 2.17

Economic & Geopolitical Probabilities for 2021 & 2022

  • Projections made: January 7, 2021
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Pres. Biden and a Democratically-controlled Congress to pass another $1 trillion stimulus by March 2021.
    HIGH Covid-19 vaccinations will not reach 70% of US population before 4th quarter 2021.
    Moderate Fiscal stimulus plus vaccinations to raise inflation expectations and 10-yr treasury yields throughout 2021.
    HIGH Covid-19 fallout to fundamentally alter the business and economic landscape. Businesses adjust to a new reality.
    Moderate Additional fiscal stimulus will accelerate US growth. Fed likely to scale back asset purchases IVQ 2021.
    HIGH Biden's social compact: Financial lifelines for the economy during Covid-19, followed by higher taxes once recovery takes hold.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH China expands drilling in SCS and ratchets up tensions with both Taiwan and India.
    Moderate Pres. Biden orders larger US naval presence in SCS to defend the International Law of the Sea.
    Moderate President Biden raises sanctions against Russia for its cyber attacks and extrajudicial killings.
    HIGH China and Russia ramp up cyber attacks to undermine the US economic recovery and access biotech secrets.
    HIGH Middle East tensions surge. JCPOA 2.0 proves elusive as Iran enriches uranium toward 20% and blocks IAEA inspections.
    Moderate Vaccinations among emerging countries do not reach herd immunity until 1H 2022.
    HIGH Despite the BREXIT accord in late 2020, talks continue to clarify issues rushed through in final days.