Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2017 II 2017 III 2017 IV 2017 I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.2 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.8 2.9 2.2 3.9 0.5 3.8 2.8 3.0 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.0
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.1
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
166 187 128 204 218 211 170 160 130 110 115 98
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.39 2.30 2.33 2.41 2.74 2.85 2.98 3.20 3.50 3.85 4.00 4.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.88 1.13 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 3.13 3.38 3.38

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US -2.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 3.0 2.2
Eurozone -4.1 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 2.0 2.1
United Kingdom -5.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.5
Japan -5.4 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.9
Canada -2.8 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 2.2 2.3
India 6.3 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 6.6 7.4 7.3
China 9.2 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.3 6.3
Brazil -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.5 2.7
Mexico -4.7 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.4
Australia 1.2 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6
Russia -7.9 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.4
World -1.9 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.7

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 111 109
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.21

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 71 64
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.70 2.55

Major Stock Indexes

End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 % Change '17 End 2018 % Change '18
DJIA 17,425 19,763 24,719 25.1 26,400 6.8
S&P 500 2,044 2,239 2,674 19.4 2,824 5.6
NASDAQ 5,007 5,383 6,903 28.2 7,393 7.1
RUSSELL 2000 1,136 1,357 1,536 13.1 1,708 11.2

Economic & Geopolitical Events That Can Disrupt U.S. GDP Growth

Projections are for 2018 and 2019
PROBABILITY (%) U.S.
75 White House implements additional tariffs and triggers a full-scale trade war
30 President Trump departs before his first term expires
30 Federal Reserve raises interest rates too rapidly; Yield curve inverts
55 President Trump announces withdrawal from NAFTA
65 U.S. economic recession to begin in 2019 or 2020
FOREIGN
20 War on the Korean Peninsula
85 China ramps up spending and borrowing to fend off economic weakness from tariffs
65 U.S. - Chinese confrontation in the South China Sea and over Taiwan
65 Iran - Saudi tensions escalate. Oil prices surge
40 War erupts between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah
15 Brexit talks collapse and imperils global trade
80 Foreign adversaries launch cyber attacks to disrupt US economy