Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

`
I 2016 II 2016 III 2016 IV 2016 I 2017 II 2017 III 2017 IV 2017 I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.2 3.0 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.0 2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE 1.8 3.8 2.8 2.9 1.9 3.3 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.9
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
196 164239 148 166 194 135 145 150 135 140 145
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period)
1.78 1.49 1.60 2.45 2.39 2.30 2.20 2.35 2.90 3.15 3.15 3.20
Federal funds rate % (end of period)
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US 1.8 -0.3 -2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.1 2.9
Eurozone 2.6 0.6 -4.1 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8
United Kingdom 3.1 0.6 -5.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.9
Japan 2.1 -0.7 -5.4 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2
Canada 2.7 0.7 -2.8 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.2 2.7
India 9.1 8.8 6.3 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 7.0 7.5
China 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2
Brazil 5.7 5.1 -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.8 -3.6 0.3 1.5
Mexico 3.3 1.4 -4.7 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.9 2.2
Australia 4.0 2.3 1.2 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.5
Russia 8.1 5.6 -7.9 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.0 1.3
World 5.4 1.6 -1.9 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 3.4 3.7

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 109 114
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.18 1.11

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 45 43
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.40 2.37

Major Stock Indexes

End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 % Change '16 End 2017 % Change '17
DJIA 17,823 17,425 19,763 13.4 21,245 7.5
S&P 500 2,059 2,044 2,239 9.5 2,436 8.8
NASDAQ 4,736 5,007 5,383 7.5 5,932 10.2
RUSSELL 2000 1,205 1,136 1,357 19.5 1,489 9.7