The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2021 | II 2021 | III 2021 | IV 2021 | I 2022 | II 2022 | III 2022 | IV 2022 | I 2023 | II 2023 | III 2023 | IV 2023 | I 2024 | II 2024 | III 2024 | IV 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 6.9 | -1.4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||
| PCE % | 11.4 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||||||
| CPI % | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 6.0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||||||
| 513 | 615 | 651 | 365 | 562 | 445 | 465 | 340 | 385 | 510 | 495 | 410 | 275 | 310 | 315 | 325 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 1.75 | 1.44 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 2.32 | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.65 | 2.61 | 2.72 | 2.70 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 1.13 | 1.63 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -3.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -6.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -9.8 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -4.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Canada | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -5.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | -7.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.9 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -3.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -1.1 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | -2.9 | 4.5 | -14.0 | -5.0 | 2.1 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | --3.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | End 2023 | End 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 109 | 104 | 115 | 128 | 115 | 108 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 1.16 | 1.22 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | End 2023 | End 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 67 | 52 | 78 | 95 | 83 | 71 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.25 | 2.29 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| Moderate | Forecast assumption: cease fire in Ukraine in 2Q; Russian - Ukraine talks begins; commodity prices drop in 2H 2022. |
| Moderate | Fed's rate projections too aggressive; We forecast fed funds at 2.13% end 2022, with long-term neutral at 2.38%. |
| Moderate | Inflation to come off its 2Q 2022 peak (8% - 9%) and drops to 4% or less by end of this year. |
| Moderate | Treasury 10-yr. yields to hover between 2.70% to 3.05% in 2022, and drops back below 3.00% in 2024. |
| HIGH | Threat of Covid virus recedes; but Asia & Africa remain breeding grounds for variants given their low vaccination rates. |
| HIGH | Odds of US recession in 2022 is 30% if war in Ukraine ends in 2Q; Risk rises to 65% in late 2022/ 2023 if conflict drags on. |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | Russia's economy is decimated. GDP to contract 10% - 15% in 2022, and another 5% in 2023. |
| HIGH | Regime change in Russia to be a prerequisite before the country rejoins the international community. |
| Moderate | Beijing fortifies naval presence in SCS and ramps up threats against Taiwan. |
| HIGH | China's 2022 growth decelerates to 4.0% - 4.5% as Covid lockdowns and property market shakeout take their toll. |
| HIGH | A cyber World War is underway; Prepare for periodic disruptions to global financial networks and power grids. |
| HIGH | New Iran nuclear accord unlikely; Teheran proceeds with nuclear military program. Tensions mount between Israel & Iran. |
| Moderate | Finland and Sweden prepare to join NATO as tensions with Russia simmers. |