Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.2 1.2 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 0.5 3.8 3.5 2.5 1.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.6
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
228 243 189 233 180 175 170 160 140 120 95 110
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.74 2.85 3.06 2.76 2.42 2.69 2.95 3.05 3.25 3.40 3.30 3.15
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.63 2.63 2.38 2.13 2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.6
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.9 1.0
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 1.8 1.7 1.9
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 8.2 7.2 7.0 7.2
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.3 2.0 1.9
World 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.7

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 115 112
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.20

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 57 51
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.32 2.22

Major Stock Indexes

End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 % Change '18 End 2019 % Change '19
DJIA 19,763 24,719 23,327 -5.6 24,327 3.9
S&P 500 2,239 2,674 2,507 -6.2 2,622 4.6
NASDAQ 5,383 6,903 6,635 -3.9 7,113 7.2
RUSSELL 2000 1,357 1,536 1,349 -12.2 1,431 6.1

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020
PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH U.S. achieves interim trade deal with China. Threat of 25% tariffs on Chinese imports recedes
HIGH Signs of wage/price spiral emerges by summer. Fed hikes rates once more
HIGH 10 Yr.Treasury yield climbs in 2H 2019 as investor appetite to fund trillion dollar U.S. budget deficits fade
LOW US companies significantly ramp up capital expenditures in 2019
MODERATE U.S. economic recession to begin by 2020
FOREIGN
HIGH Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new elections are held
HIGH China boosts official spending and extends credit to fend off economic downturn
MODERATE U.S. - Chinese military clash in the South China Sea and over Taiwan
MODERATE Saudi monarchy in turmoil in 2019. Oil prices climb
MODERATE Major clashes erupt between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah
HIGH UK postpones Brexit by several months, followed by a second referendum or new national elections
LOW Fighting between India and Pakistan escalates. Both countries edge closer to a nuclear confrontation