Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 6.3 6.7 2.3 6.9 -1.6 -0.9 1.2 1.0 -1.1 -0.2 1.9 2.3 2.1 3.3 2.4 2.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 11.4 12.0 2.0 2.5 1.8 1.0 1.8 2.4 -0.9 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.8 2.7 2.2
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.6 5.3 5.4 7.0 8.5 9.1 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.0 6.6 5.7 3.8 2.7 2.5
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 6.0 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
513 615 651 365 562 384 310 295 290 310 325 255 275 310 315 325
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
1.75 1.44 1.52 1.51 2.32 2.97 2.70 2.75 2.75 2.80 3.05 3.07 3.07 3.10 3.15 3.20
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 1.63 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.63 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.3 -3.4 5.7 0.6 1.0 2.6
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -6.7 5.2 0.5 1.5 2.5
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -9.8 7.5 2.5 1.0 2.0
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.2 -4.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.9
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.3 4.5 2.5 2.3 2.8
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -7.5 9.2 6.7 6.5 7.2
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.2 8.1 4.3 5.2 5.5
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -3.9 4.5 0.9 2.1 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -8.5 5.0 1.8 1.5 2.7
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 2.8 2.4 2.9
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -2.9 4.5 -9.0 -2.0 1.9
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 --3.1 5.9 2.8 3.1 4.4

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 133 122 118
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.04 1.12 1.22

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 103 87 76
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.29 4.25 4.05 3.45

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2022 & 2023

  • Latest revision: July 28, 2022
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Forecast assumption: Russia ends war in Ukraine by mid 2023. Oil and natural gas prices to remain elevated in 2022.
    HIGH Fed's aggressive rate hikes doom economy to stagflation in 2H. Economic activity weakens, but inflation remains high.
    Moderate Odds of US technical recession 55% this year, but jumps to 70% in 2023 as higher rates choke off economic activity;
    Moderate Treasury 10-yr. yields hovers between 2.65% to 3.10% the next 12- 18 months as risk of recession looms.
    HIGH Lethal threat of Covid virus recedes. But a wave of reinfections from subvariants seen for fall/winter 2022- 2023.
    HIGH Supply chain bottlenecks to ease at ports in 2H, though some goods will lag others in terms of their availability.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Russia's economy is cratering. GDP to contract 8% - 10% in 2022, and another 3% in 2023.
    HIGH Regime change in Russia to be a prerequisite before the country can rejoin the international community.
    HIGH Beijing fortifies naval presence in South China Sea and Taiwan Straight to counter US political support of Taiwan.
    HIGH China's 2022 growth decelerates to below 4% as Covid lockdowns and property market shakeout take their toll.
    Moderate A cyber World War is underway; Prepare for periodic disruptions to global power grids and communications.
    Moderate Iran can now produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb. Israel is unlikely to sit by.
    HIGH Recession odds in Eurozone jumps to 80% in late 2022/2023 as the ECB lifts rates and energy prices surge.