Key Economic Forecasts

United States

	I 2018	II 2018	III 2018	IV 2018	I 2019	II 2019	III 2019	IV 2019	I 2020	II 2020	III 2020	IV 2020	I 2021	II 2021	III 2021	IV 2021
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
%	2.2	4.2	3.4	2.2	3.1	2.0	1.8	2.2	2.0	2.7	2.1	2.3	2.2	2.7	2.6	2.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE %	0.5	3.8	3.5	1.4	1.1	4.7	2.6	3.1	2.2	3.0	1.9	3.4	2.7	3.8	3.0	4.1
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI %	2.4	2.9	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.6	2.0	2.2	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.7	2.7	2.8
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
%	4.1	4.0	3.7	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.6	3.5	3.8	3.9	4.0	4.1	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.7
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
	228	243	189	233	174	152	143	150	135	140	125	125	135	155	160	165
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
	2.74	2.85	3.06	2.76	2.42	2.00	1.65	1.80	1.85	1.70	2.00	2.25	2.70	3.10	3.80	4.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
	1.63	1.88	2.13	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.13	1.88	1.88	1.88	1.88	1.88	2.13	2.38	2.63	2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
US	2.6	1.6	2.2	1.8	2.5	2.9	1.6	2.4	2.9	2.2	2.3	2.6
Eurozone	1.7	1.4	-0.9	-0.3	1.2	1.6	1.7	2.5	1.9	1.0	1.3	1.8
United Kingdom	1.7	0.7	0.3	1.8	2.9	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.8	2.0
Japan	4.6	-0.4	1.6	1.5	-0.1	1.1	1.0	1.9	0.8	0.9	0.6	1.7
Canada	3.1	3.1	1.7	2.2	2.5	0.9	1.4	3.0	1.9	1.5	1.1	2.4
India	8.4	8.6	6.7	4.9	7.4	8.0	8.1	7.2	6.8	6.5	6.3	7.3
China	10.5	9.5	7.8	7.7	7.3	6.9	6.7	6.8	6.6	6.2	5.8	6.1
Brazil	7.5	2.7	0.9	2.3	0.1	-3.5	-3.5	1.4	1.1	0.9	1.0	1.7
Mexico	5.2	4.0	3.9	1.4	2.3	2.7	2.9	2.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	2.2
Australia	2.8	2.6	3.6	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.0	1.8	2.6
Russia	4.0	4.3	3.4	1.3	0.6	-2.8	-0.2	1.6	2.5	1.5	1.3	2.2
World	4.2	3.0	2.6	2.9	3.0	2.8	2.6	3.3	3.2	3.0	2.6	3.3

Key Currency Values

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019	End 2020	End 2021
USD/Yen	91	93	81	77	87	105	119	120	117	113	110	105	110	104
Euro/USD	1.40	1.43	1.34	1.29	1.32	1.37	1.21	1.09	1.05	1.20	1.14	1.11	1.13	1.18

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019	End 2020	End 2021
Crude oil per barrel	46	78	95	107	111	111	58	38	49	67	54	55	60	64
Gasoline	1.61	2.57	3.00	3.27	3.30	3.32	2.26	2.00	2.31	2.47	2.26	2.32	2.40	2.45

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020

PROBABILITY	U.S.
HIGH	China to stall on trade talks until after US presidential election.
HIGH	Higher tariffs on Chinese imports slows US economy. Trump pressures the Fed to cut rates further.
Moderate	Fed expected to reduce rates twice in 2nd half of 2019, each 25 basis points. No cuts seen in 2020.
HIGH	10 Yr. Treasury yield climbs in second half of 2020 as investor appetite for US debt wanes.
HIGH	U.S. firms slow CAP EX thru 2020 due to global economic slowdown and trade tensions.
Moderate	U.S. economy suffers a recession by end of 2020.
	FOREIGN
HIGH	Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses by mid-2020; new elections are planned.
HIGH	China sends paramilitary into Hong Kong to end pro-democracy protests.
Moderate	Risk of military confrontation in South China Sea escalates as US increases naval presence.
HIGH	Iran proceeds to enrich uranium toward 20%. Risks increase of a military response by US or Israel.
HIGH	India and Pakistan clash over Kashmir. Both nuclear-armed countries edge closer to war.
HIGH	New UK elections likely as Parliament blocks PM Boris Johnson's move toward a no-deal BREXIT.
Moderate	Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf pushes WTI oil price higher, even as global demand for crude falters.