Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 6.3 7.0 2.7 7.0 -1.6 -0.6 2.9 3.5 -0.1 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 3.1 2.2 2.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 10.8 12.1 3.0 3.1 1.3 2.0 1.7 2.8 0.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.8 2.7 2.2
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.6 5.3 5.4 7.0 8.5 9.1 8.2 7.9 7.5 6.9 6.0 5.2 4.5 4.3 3.7 2.8
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 6.0 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.6
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
513 615 651 365 539 349 372 268 185 180 215 225 180 275 340 260
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
1.75 1.44 1.52 1.51 2.32 2.97 3.80 3.65 3.55 3.35 3.40 3.40 3.45 3.55 3.60 3.65
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 1.63 3.13 4.38 4.88 4.88 4.88 4.38 3.88 3.38 3.38 3.38

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.3 0.7 2.4
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.2 2.6 -0.4 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 -9.3 7.4 3.3 -0.9 1.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.2 -4.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.2 4.5 3.0 0.7 2.6
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 3.8 -6.6 8.7 7.0 6.2 7.3
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.1 2.9 4.5 5.2
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.7 -4.2 4.6 2.7 1.8 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.2 -8.3 4.8 2.3 1.3 2.4
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.4 1.9 2.8
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 4.7 -5.4 -3.1 2.8
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 --3.3 5.8 2.6 2.1 3.3

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 138 122 118
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.04 1.11 1.17

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 89 84 76
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.29 3.65 3.15 2.80

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2023

  • Latest revision: November 30, 2022
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    Moderate Recession odds for 2023 has been reduced to 45%. No significant contraction seen in U.S. consumer and biz spending.
    HIGH Federal Reserve begins to cut rates in IVQ 2023 as inflation steadily declines with a 4% handle by year-end 2023.
    HIGH Forecast assumption: Russia ends war in Ukraine by mid 2023. Oil and natural gas prices retreat during the year.
    Moderate Treasury 10-yr. yield hovers between 3.45% to 4.00% the next 12- 18 months given the risk of a mild recession.
    HIGH Supply chain flows should continue to improve in 2023 as China's economy picks up speed next year.
    HIGH Labor shortage in U.S. to last thru 2023, despite economic slowdown. Yet wage inflation continues to decelerate.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Russia's economy is cratering. GDP to contract 3.0% - 5.00% in 2022, and another 3% in 2023.
    Moderate Putin's gambit in Ukraine has utterly failed. NATO solidarity has firmed. Regime change in Russia now likely in 2023.
    HIGH Beijing fortifies naval presence in South China Sea and Taiwan Straight to counter US political support of Taiwan.
    HIGH China fine tunes Covid lockdown procedures in 2023. It seeks to better control outbreaks & limit damage to the economy.
    Moderate OPEC seen raising output in mid-2023 as global economy picks up speed with demand for crude increasing.
    HIGH Iran has enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, and is now testing missile delivery systems. Israel unlikely to sit by.
    HIGH Recession odds in Eurozone at 70% in IH 2023. But economy rebounds in 2H as inflation slows & ECB pauses rate hikes.