Key Economic Forecasts

Actual
Forecast

United States

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	I 2016	II 2016	III 2016	IV 2016	I 2017	II 2017	III 2017	IV 2017	I 2018	II 2018	III 2018	IV 2018
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
%	0.8	1.4	3.5	2.1	1.2	2.5	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.7	3.0	2.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE	1.6	4.3	3.0	3.5	0.6	3.0	2.5	2.8	2.6	3.5	3.3	2.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI %	0.9	1.0	1.5	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.7	2.8
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
%	5.0	4.9	4.9	4.7	4.5	4.3	4.1	4.3	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.8
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
	196	164	239	148	166	145	135	135	145	130	115	125
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period)
	1.78	1.49	1.60	2.45	2.39	2.20	2.22	2.35	2.90	3.15	3.15	3.20
Federal funds rate % (end of period)
	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.63	0.88	1.13	1.13	1.38	1.63	1.88	2.13	2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
US	1.8	-0.3	-2.8	2.5	1.6	2.2	1.7	2.4	2.6	1.6	2.1	2.6
Eurozone	2.6	0.6	-4.1	1.7	1.4	-0.9	-0.3	1.2	1.6	1.7	1.9	1.8
United Kingdom	3.1	0.6	-5.2	1.7	0.7	0.3	1.8	2.9	2.2	1.8	1.4	0.9
Japan	2.1	-0.7	-5.4	4.6	-0.4	1.6	1.5	-0.1	1.1	1.0	1.3	1.0
Canada	2.7	0.7	-2.8	3.1	3.1	1.7	2.2	2.5	0.9	1.4	2.9	2.5
India	9.1	8.8	6.3	8.4	8.6	6.7	4.9	7.4	7.9	7.1	7.0	7.5
China	14.2	9.6	9.2	10.5	9.5	7.8	7.7	7.3	6.9	6.7	6.5	6.5
Brazil	5.7	5.1	-0.3	7.5	2.7	0.9	2.3	0.1	-3.8	-3.6	0.3	1.5
Mexico	3.3	1.4	-4.7	5.2	4.0	3.9	1.4	2.3	2.7	2.0	1.8	2.4
Australia	4.0	2.3	1.2	2.8	2.6	3.6	2.4	2.6	2.4	2.4	2.6	2.7
Russia	8.1	5.6	-7.9	4.0	4.3	3.4	1.3	0.6	-2.8	-0.4	0.9	1.7
World	5.4	1.6	-1.9	4.2	3.0	2.6	2.9	3.0	2.7	2.4	3.7	3.3

Key Currency Values

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018
USD/Yen	91	93	81	77	87	105	119	120	117	125	114
Euro/USD	1.40	1.43	1.34	1.29	1.32	1.37	1.21	1.09	1.05	1.03	1.11

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018
Crude oil per barrel	46	78	95	107	111	111	58	38	49	45	43
Gasoline	1.61	2.57	3.00	3.27	3.30	3.32	2.26	2.00	2.31	2.40	2.37

Major Stock Indexes

	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	% Change '16	End 2017	% Change '17
DJIA	17,823	17,425	19,763	13.4	21,245	7.5
S&P 500	2,059	2,044	2,239	9.5	2,436	8.8
NASDAQ	4,736	5,007	5,383	7.5	5,932	10.2
RUSSELL 2000	1,205	1,136	1,357	19.5	1,489	9.7