Key Economic Forecasts

United States

	I 2018	II 2018	III 2018	IV 2018	I 2019	II 2019	III 2019	IV 2019	I 2020	II 2020	III 2020	IV 2020
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
%	2.2	4.2	3.4	2.2	3.1	1.6	2.2	2.3	1.2	2.4	2.3	2.3
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE %	0.5	3.8	3.5	2.5	1.3	2.3	2.2	2.7	1.8	2.4	2.0	2.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI %	2.4	2.9	2.3	1.9	1.9	2.2	2.3	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
%	4.1	4.0	3.7	3.9	3.8	3.6	3.5	3.6	3.9	4.1	4.2	4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
	228	243	189	233	174	170	175	180	160	165	155	140
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
	2.74	2.85	3.06	2.76	2.42	2.35	2.80	3.05	3.25	3.40	3.50	3.60
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
	1.63	1.88	2.13	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.38	2.13	2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
US	2.6	1.6	2.2	1.8	2.5	2.9	1.6	2.2	2.9	2.3	2.1
Eurozone	1.7	1.4	-0.9	-0.3	1.2	1.6	1.7	2.5	1.8	1.4	1.7
United Kingdom	1.7	0.7	0.3	1.8	2.9	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.4	1.5	1.9
Japan	4.6	-0.4	1.6	1.5	-0.1	1.1	1.0	1.9	0.7	0.9	1.1
Canada	3.1	3.1	1.7	2.2	2.5	0.9	1.4	3.0	1.8	1.6	1.9
India	8.4	8.6	6.7	4.9	7.4	7.9	7.1	8.2	7.2	6.8	7.2
China	10.5	9.5	7.8	7.7	7.3	6.9	6.7	6.8	6.6	6.3	6.2
Brazil	7.5	2.7	0.9	2.3	0.1	-3.5	-3.5	1.4	2.3	1.3	2.1
Mexico	5.2	4.0	3.9	1.4	2.3	2.7	2.9	2.1	2.0	1.5	1.8
Australia	2.8	2.6	3.6	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.3	2.7
Russia	4.0	4.3	3.4	1.3	0.6	-2.8	-0.2	1.6	2.3	2.0	1.9
World	4.2	3.0	2.6	2.9	3.0	2.8	2.6	3.3	3.2	3.2	3.2

Key Currency Values

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019	End 2020
USD/Yen	91	93	81	77	87	105	119	120	117	113	110	115	112
Euro/USD	1.40	1.43	1.34	1.29	1.32	1.37	1.21	1.09	1.05	1.20	1.14	1.12	1.20

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019	End 2020
Crude oil per barrel	46	78	95	107	111	111	58	38	49	67	54	57	51
Gasoline	1.61	2.57	3.00	3.27	3.30	3.32	2.26	2.00	2.31	2.47	2.26	2.32	2.22

Major Stock Indexes

	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	% Change '18	End 2019	% Change '19
DJIA	19,763	24,719	23,327	-5.6	24,327	3.9
S&P 500	2,239	2,674	2,507	-6.2	2,622	4.6
NASDAQ	5,383	6,903	6,635	-3.9	7,113	7.2
RUSSELL 2000	1,357	1,536	1,349	-12.2	1,431	6.1

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020

PROBABILITY	U.S.
HIGH	U.S. settles on interim trade deal with China in 2H 2019. Threat of a broader tariffs recedes.
HIGH	Strains emerge between Trump and USTR Lighthizer as a final trade accord with China remains elusive.
HIGH	U.S. inflation picks up by summer even as economy slows; Fed keeps rates unchanged in 2019.
HIGH	10 Yr. Treasury yield rebounds sharply in 2020 as global investor appetite to fund U.S. deficits decreases.
HIGH	U.S. firms boost CAP EX in 2019 to offset labor scarcity and to domesticate supply chains.
Moderate	U.S. economy suffers a two-quarter contraction by 2020.
	FOREIGN
HIGH	Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new elections are planned.
HIGH	China successfully arrests economic slowdown by using selective stimulus.
Moderate	U.S. - China clash militarily in the South China Sea and over Taiwan.
HIGH	Terrorist attempts to sabotage Saudi oil infrastructure increases in 2019. Oil prices climb.
HIGH	Iran counters U.S. sanctions by taking actions that raise tensions in the Middle East.
HIGH	Boris Johnson most likely to be next PM; Will pull UK out of EU by October with or without deal.
Moderate	WTI oil to average between $50 and $60 bbl as the weak global economy reduces demand for crude.