Key Economic Forecasts

United States

	I 2017	II 2017	III 2017	IV 2017	I 2018	II 2018	III 2018	IV 2018	I 2019	II 2019	III 2019	IV 2019
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
%	1.2	3.1	3.2	2.9	1.8	3.3	2.7	2.6	1.9	2.2	2.0	2.4
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE %	1.9	3.3	2.2	4.0	1.9	2.4	2.7	3.0	2.2	2.1	2.3	2.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI %	2.4	1.6	2.2	2.1	2.4	2.4	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.5
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
%	4.5	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.1	3.8	3.7	3.9	4.2	4.4	4.4	4.5
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
	166	187	128	204	202	190	160	160	150	145	140	140
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
	2.39	2.30	2.33	2.41	2.74	2.98	3.05	3.05	3.35	3.25	3.10	3.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
	0.88	1.13	1.13	1.38	1.63	1.63	1.88	2.13	2.38	2.63	2.63	2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
US	-2.8	2.5	1.6	2.2	1.7	2.6	2.9	1.5	2.3	2.6	2.1
Eurozone	-4.1	1.7	1.4	-0.9	-0.3	1.2	1.6	1.7	2.5	2.4	1.7
United Kingdom	-5.2	1.7	0.7	0.3	1.8	2.9	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.0	1.4
Japan	-5.4	4.6	-0.4	1.6	1.5	-0.1	1.1	1.0	1.6	1.7	0.9
Canada	-2.8	3.1	3.1	1.7	2.2	2.5	0.9	1.4	3.0	2.6	2.5
India	6.3	8.4	8.6	6.7	4.9	7.4	7.9	7.1	6.6	7.4	7.3
China	9.2	10.5	9.5	7.8	7.7	7.3	6.9	6.7	6.9	6.6	6.3
Brazil	-0.3	7.5	2.7	0.9	2.3	0.1	-3.5	-3.5	1.0	2.3	2.6
Mexico	-4.7	5.2	4.0	3.9	1.4	2.3	2.7	2.9	2.1	2.0	2.5
Australia	1.2	2.8	2.6	3.6	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.7	3.0
Russia	-7.9	4.0	4.3	3.4	1.3	0.6	-2.8	-0.2	1.5	2.1	2.0
World	-1.9	4.2	3.0	2.6	2.9	3.0	2.7	2.4	3.2	3.4	3.2

Key Currency Values

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019
USD/Yen	91	93	81	77	87	105	119	120	117	113	111	114
Euro/USD	1.40	1.43	1.34	1.29	1.32	1.37	1.21	1.09	1.05	1.20	1.25	1.24

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

	End 2008	End 2009	End 2010	End 2011	End 2012	End 2013	End 2014	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	End 2018	End 2019
Crude oil per barrel	46	78	95	107	111	111	58	38	49	67	54	45
Gasoline	1.61	2.57	3.00	3.27	3.30	3.32	2.26	2.00	2.31	2.47	2.45	2.30

Major Stock Indexes

	End 2015	End 2016	End 2017	% Change '17	End 2018	% Change '18
DJIA	17,425	19,763	24,719	25.1	26,400	6.8
S&P 500	2,044	2,239	2,674	19.4	2,824	5.6
NASDAQ	5,007	5,383	6,903	28.2	7,393	7.1
RUSSELL 2000	1,136	1,357	1,536	13.1	1,708	11.2

Economic & Geopolitical Events That Can Disrupt U.S. GDP Growth: Their Probability of Occurrence

Any scenario above 50% will be incorporated in our baseline economic forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

PROBABILITY (%)	U.S.
50	White House announces new tariffs and triggers a trade war
45	President Trump departs before his first term expires
35	Federal Reserve raises interest rates too rapidly; Yield curve inverts
15	Bitcoin price crashes; sell-off spreads to broader equity markets
40	U.S. inflation accelerates faster than expected
	FOREIGN
40	War on the Korean Peninsula
40	China mismanages efforts to deleverage; debt bubble bursts
35	U.S. - Chinese confrontation in the South China Sea
30	Iran's domestic turmoil boils over to civil war: cost of crude climbs
30	Saudi - Iran tensions escalate to direct military conflict: Oil prices surge
25	War erupts between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah
15	Brexit talks collapse and imperils global trade
30	Catastrophic act of terrorism involving WMDs