Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2017 II 2017 III 2017 IV 2017 I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.0 2.6 2.6 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.4
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.9 3.3 2.2 4.0 1.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.5
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
166 187 128 204 202 185 160 160 150 145 140 140
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.39 2.30 2.33 2.41 2.74 3.01 3.05 3.15 3.10 3.10 3.05 2.95
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.88 1.13 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.63 2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US -2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.1
Eurozone -4.1 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 2.4 1.7
United Kingdom -5.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.6
Japan -5.4 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.9
Canada -2.8 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 2.2 1.9
India 6.3 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 6.6 7.4 7.6
China 9.2 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3
Brazil -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.5 2.7
Mexico -4.7 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.7
Australia 1.2 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.1
Russia -7.9 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.5 1.6 1.7
World -1.9 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.3

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 111 114
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.25 1.24

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 68 55
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.55 2.30

Major Stock Indexes

End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 % Change '17 End 2018 % Change '18
DJIA 17,425 19,763 24,719 25.1 26,400 6.8
S&P 500 2,044 2,239 2,674 19.4 2,824 5.6
NASDAQ 5,007 5,383 6,903 28.2 7,393 7.1
RUSSELL 2000 1,136 1,357 1,536 13.1 1,708 11.2

Economic & Geopolitical Events That Can Disrupt U.S. GDP Growth

Any scenario above 50% will be incorporated in our baseline economic forecasts for 2018 and 2019.
PROBABILITY (%) U.S.
50 White House implements new tariffs and triggers a trade war
45 President Trump departs before his first term expires
25 Federal Reserve raises interest rates too rapidly; Yield curve inverts
75 President Trump withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal in May; New talks begin
40 U.S. inflation accelerates faster than expected
FOREIGN
35 War on the Korean Peninsula
40 China mismanages efforts to deleverage; debt bubble bursts
40 U.S. - Chinese confrontation in the South China Sea
35 Saudi - Iran tensions escalate to direct military conflict: Oil prices surge
25 War erupts between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah
15 Brexit talks collapse and imperils global trade
30 Catastrophic act of terrorism involving WMDs