Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.6 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 0.5 3.8 3.5 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.6
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
218 211 190 230 201 189 170 140 140 120 95 110
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.74 2.85 3.06 2.76 2.85 2.95 3.00 3.15 3.25 3.40 3.30 3.15
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.38 2.38 2.13 2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.5
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.4
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.1
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 8.2 7.2 7.0 7.2
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.9
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.3 2.0 1.9
World 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.7

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 115 112
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.20

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 57 51
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.32 2.22

Major Stock Indexes

End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 % Change '18 End 2019 % Change '19
DJIA 19,763 24,719 23,327 -5.6 24,327 3.9
S&P 500 2,239 2,674 2,507 -6.2 2,622 4.6
NASDAQ 5,383 6,903 6,635 -3.9 7,113 7.2
RUSSELL 2000 1,357 1,536 1,349 -12.2 1,431 6.1

Economic & Geopolitical Events That Can Disrupt U.S. GDP Growth

Projections are for 2019 and 2020
PROBABILITY (%) U.S.
60 White House extends the truce and delays lifting tariffs to 25% on Chinese imports
55 Economy slows 2nd half 2019. Fed cuts rates in 2020
20 Yield curve inverts (3-month bill to 10-year Treasury note)
25 US companies significantly ramp up capital expenditures in 2019
45 U.S. economic recession to begin by 2020
FOREIGN
70 Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new government takes over
85 China boosts official spending and extends credit to fend off economic downturn
45 U.S. - Chinese military clash in the South China Sea and over Taiwan
50 Saudi monarchy in turmoil in 2019. Oil prices climb sharply
55 Major clashes erupt between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah
65 UK decides to postpone Brexit by March, followed by a second referendum on leaving the EU
35 US and China reach a comprehensive accord on trade in 2019. Trade tensions fade