Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -5.0 --31.4 33.4 4.3 6.3 6.6 5.7 4.1 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % -6.9 -33.2 41.0 2.3 11.4 11.9 7.7 4.9 2.6 4.2 3.7 2.9 1.5 2.9 2.8 2.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 5.4 5.2 4.3 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.3
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.4 11.1 7.8 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.1
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
-303 -4,427 1,322 213 513 615 565 375 424 625 865 540 385 225 235 250
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
0.63 0.65 0.68 0.91 1.75 1.44 1.35 1.55 1.60 1.70 1.75 2.05 2.10 2.10 2.26 2.35
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 0.88 1.13 1.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -3.5 5.7 3.1 2.4
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -6.7 4.0 3.5 2.2
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -9.8 5.9 4.8 2.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -4.8 2.4 2.8 2.2
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.4 6.2 4.6 2.9
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -8.2 6.9 7.3 6.7
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.3 6.9 5.9 5.6
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -4.4 4.6 3.3 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -8.4 5.7 2.8 2.7
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.8 3.1 2.3
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -2.9 3.8 2.9 2.4
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 --3.8 5.6 4.8 3.6

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 110 107 104
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.18 1.22 1.26

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 70 64 60
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 3.10 2.65 2.60

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2021 & 2022

  • Updated: September 7, 2021
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Congress to pass the full $1 trillion physical infrastructure bill in 4Q 2021.
    Moderate No chance of Senate Democratic passage for $3.5 trillion American Families Plan. Will require massive haircut.
    HIGH Current surge in inflation will drop back to near 2% in 2022 as supply chains improve and wage increases level off.
    Moderate Treasury 10-yr. yields to hover between 1.3% to 1.6% in 2021 even as the Fed hints of scaling back asset purchases.
    HIGH Covid-19 to become an endemic as virus continues to mutate. Another wave of infections likely this fall and winter.
    HIGH Fed to begin tapering asset purchases in IQ 2022 as the US economy regains footing and labor market slack diminishes.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Beijing fortifies naval presence in SCS; further erodes autonomy in Hong Kong and increases threats against Taiwan.
    HIGH Biden orders greater US naval presence in SCS to defend International Law of the Sea and support regional allies.
    HIGH US - Russian tensions approach cold war levels over Moscow's cyberattacks, extrajudicial killings and Ukraine.
    Moderate A cyber World War is underway; may result in periodic disruptions to global financial networks and power grids.
    HIGH Iran's new hard-line president secretly backs policy to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon.
    Moderate Economies of US & Europe to recover in 2022; Parts of Asia, Africa & South America struggle from Covid and low vaccination rates.
    HIGH US resets trade relations with Europe. But Biden will retain most of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods.