Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -5.0 -29.1 1.9 4.4 2.2 2.8 2.5 3.1 2.8 4.5 4.0 3.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.1 4.6 3.2 1.8 -6.8 -20.5 2.4 5.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.3 2.4 5.1 4.8 3.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.5 -4.3 -0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 4.4 19.8 15 12.6 12.0 10.6 9.5 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.2 6.0
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
174 152 188 210 -142 -18000 -85 38 85 110 135 140 135 120 110 115
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.42 2.00 1.65 1.88 0.63 0.70 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.65 2.00 2.30 2.60 2.75 2.98 3.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
2.38 2.38 1.88 1.63 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.63 1.13 1.63 2.13 2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3 -7.0 2.7 3.8
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -8.2 3.1 4.2
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -10.9 3.1 3.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -5.5 2.4 3.2
Canda 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -8.1 2.7 3.4
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.2 -2.0 6.1 7.4
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.7 7.2 6.5
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -6.6 1.8 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -9.1 1.8 2.8
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -6.9 2.2 4.1
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.3 -7.5 1.9 3.0
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 -4.3 3.3 4.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 108 104 108
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.12 1.18 1.14

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 28 37 48
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.05 2.25 2.30

Economic & Geopolitical Probabilities for 2020 & 2021

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH Coronavirus and oil price war to cause economic "depression" in 2Q; output shrinks in 2020.
HIGH Economic activity in 2020 will be inversely correlated to rate of coronavirus infection.
Moderate 10 yr.T-note yield to remain under 1% in 2020 but climbs in 2021 as investor appetite for US debt wanes.
HIGH Business CAP EX delayed as coronavirus, oil price free fall, US elections cloud the economic outlook.
HIGH Fifth stimulus package will contain increase in infrastructure spending.
HIGH US - China relations in free fall over trade issues, Covid-19, Hong Kong and US campaign rhetoric.
FOREIGN
HIGH China: Coronavirus to causes a recession in 2020, though it won't be reflected in official data.
HIGH Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2020; new elections are planned.
HIGH As public criticism grows of Xi Jinping's leadership, Politburo rescinds his "president for life" status.
Moderate Foreign adversaries launch cyber attack to affect US presidential election.
Moderate Iran: Dismal economy and Coronavirus fuels distrust of theocratic gov't and incite more civil unrest.
Moderate Border tensions between India, China and Pakistan raise the risk of new military conflict.
HIGH With UK now out of the EU, talks on their future economic relationship to extend beyond 2020.