Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 6.3 6.7 2.3 6.9 -1.4 3.3 2.8 2.6 1.8 3.6 3.1 2.1 2.4 3.3 2.4 2.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 11.4 12.0 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.8 2.6 2.0 2.1 4.1 3.2 2.0 2.6 3.8 2.6 2.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.6 5.3 5.4 7.0 8.5 8.8 7.4 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 6.0 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
513 615 651 365 562 445 465 340 385 510 495 410 275 310 315 325
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
1.75 1.44 1.52 1.51 2.32 2.80 2.70 2.55 2.55 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.65 2.61 2.72 2.70
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 1.13 1.63 2.13 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.3 -3.4 5.7 2.2 2.4 2.7
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -6.7 5.2 1.8 2.4 2.5
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -9.8 7.5 3.3 2.4 2.3
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.2 -4.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.9
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.6
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -7.5 9.2 6.6 6.8 6.9
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.2 8.1 4.3 5.5 5.6
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -3.9 4.5 1.6 2.2 2.6
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -8.5 5.0 1.9 2.6 2.4
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.8 2.7 2.9
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -2.9 4.5 -14.0 -5.0 2.1
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 --3.1 6.1 3.4 3.9 4.1

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 128 115 108
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.16 1.22

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 95 83 71
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.29 3.90 3.10 2.80

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2022 & 2023

  • Latest revision: May 2, 2022
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    Moderate Forecast assumption: cease fire in Ukraine in 2Q; Russian - Ukraine talks begins; commodity prices drop in 2H 2022.
    Moderate Fed's rate projections too aggressive; We forecast fed funds at 2.13% end 2022, with long-term neutral at 2.38%.
    Moderate Inflation to come off its 2Q 2022 peak (8% - 9%) and drops to 4% or less by end of this year.
    Moderate Treasury 10-yr. yields to hover between 2.70% to 3.05% in 2022, and drops back below 3.00% in 2024.
    HIGH Threat of Covid virus recedes; but Asia & Africa remain breeding grounds for variants given their low vaccination rates.
    HIGH Odds of US recession in 2022 is 30% if war in Ukraine ends in 2Q; Risk rises to 65% in late 2022/ 2023 if conflict drags on.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Russia's economy is decimated. GDP to contract 10% - 15% in 2022, and another 5% in 2023.
    HIGH Regime change in Russia to be a prerequisite before the country rejoins the international community.
    Moderate Beijing fortifies naval presence in SCS and ramps up threats against Taiwan.
    HIGH China's 2022 growth decelerates to 4.0% - 4.5% as Covid lockdowns and property market shakeout take their toll.
    HIGH A cyber World War is underway; Prepare for periodic disruptions to global financial networks and power grids.
    HIGH New Iran nuclear accord unlikely; Teheran proceeds with nuclear military program. Tensions mount between Israel & Iran.
    Moderate Finland and Sweden prepare to join NATO as tensions with Russia simmers.