The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2018 | II 2018 | III 2018 | IV 2018 | I 2019 | II 2019 | III 2019 | IV 2019 | I 2020 | II 2020 | III 2020 | IV 2020 | I 2021 | II 2021 | III 2021 | IV 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||
| PCE % | 1.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||||||
| CPI % | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||||||
| 228 | 243 | 189 | 233 | 174 | 152 | 188 | 155 | 140 | 140 | 125 | 125 | 135 | 155 | 160 | 165 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.74 | 2.85 | 3.06 | 2.76 | 2.42 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 3.80 | 4.10 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 1.63 | 1.88 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 1.88 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.63 | 2.63 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Canada | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 105 | 110 | 104 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.11 | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 55 | 60 | 64 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.32 | 2.40 | 2.45 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| HIGH | US and China reach an interim agreement on paper, but trade tensions will remain high throughout 2020. |
| HIGH | US economy to lose some momentum as the nation confronts a contentious presidential campaign. |
| Moderate | After lowering rates three times of 2019, each 25 basis points, Fed to stand pat in 2020. |
| HIGH | 10 Yr. Treasury yield creeps higher in 2020 as investor appetite for US government debt wanes. |
| HIGH | U.S. firms to revive CAP EX given the China trade deal and better economic data from Europe and Asia. |
| HIGH | Inflation and short term interest rates to remain low throughout 2020. |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2020; new elections are planned. |
| HIGH | China sends paramilitary into Hong Kong to quash pro-democracy protests. |
| Moderate | Foreign adversary launches cyber attack that paralyzes parts of US economy. |
| HIGH | Iran proceeds to enrich uranium past 20%. Risks increase of a military response by US or Israel. |
| Moderate | India and Pakistan clash over Kashmir. Both nuclear-armed countries edge closer to war. |
| HIGH | Given Boris Johnson's victory in gaining parliamentary control, UK to leave EU end of January 2020. |
| Moderate | Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf pushes WTI oil price higher, even as global demand for crude falters. |