Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2017 II 2017 III 2017 IV 2017 I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 1.2 3.0 3.3 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.9 3.3 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.5 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
166 194 128 230 190 185 160 160 150 145 140 140
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.39 2.30 2.33 2.40 2.45 2.55 2.85 3.20 3.35 3.45 3.70 4.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.88 1.13 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.63 1.88 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 2.88

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US -2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.4 2.8 2.4
Eurozone -4.1 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.7
United Kingdom -5.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.1
Japan -5.4 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.7
Canada -2.8 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.2 2.7 2.5
India 6.3 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 7.0 7.5 7.7
China 9.2 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.2
Brazil -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.8 -3.6 0.9 1.9 2.8
Mexico -4.7 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.5
Australia 1.2 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.0
Russia -7.9 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.4 1.8 2.0
World -1.9 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 3.5 3.7 3.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 116 118
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.18 1.20 1.24

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 60 47 44
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.50 2.35 2.30

Major Stock Indexes

End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 % Change '16 End 2017 % Change '17
DJIA 17,823 17,425 19,763 13.4 23,450 18.7
S&P 500 2,059 2,044 2,239 9.5 2,550 13.9
NASDAQ 4,736 5,007 5,383 7.5 6,720 24.8
RUSSELL 2000 1,205 1,136 1,357 19.5 1,489 9.7