Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 4.2 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.0 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.6
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
218 211 190 180 130 110 115 100 94 110 86 78
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.74 2.85 3.06 3.03 3.30 3.50 3.85 4.10 4.15 3.85 3.80 3.70
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13 2.88 2.63 2.63

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.5
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.4
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.1
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 6.6 7.2 7.0 7.2
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.1 6.0
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.9
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9
World 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.7

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 113 119 112
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.13 1.12 1.20

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 61 57 48
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.60 2.55 2.30

Major Stock Indexes

End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 % Change '17 End 2018 % Change '18
DJIA 17,425 19,763 24,719 25.1 24,910 0.8
S&P 500 2,044 2,239 2,674 19.4 2,610 -2.4
NASDAQ 5,007 5,383 6,903 28.2 7,110 3.0
RUSSELL 2000 1,136 1,357 1,536 13.1 1,405 -8.5

Economic & Geopolitical Events That Can Disrupt U.S. GDP Growth

Projections are for 2019 and 2020
PROBABILITY (%) U.S.
65 White House lifts tariffs to 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports in 2019
45 President Trump resigns before his first term expires
30 Federal Reserve raises interest rates too rapidly; Yield curve inverts
25 US companies significantly ramp up capital expenditures in 2019
50 U.S. economic recession to begin by 2020
FOREIGN
20 War erupts on the Korean Peninsula
85 China boosts official spending and extends credit to fend off economic downturn
55 U.S. - Chinese military clash in the South China Sea and over Taiwan
65 Saudi monarchy in turmoil. Oil prices surge
40 War erupts between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah
55 UK Parliament rejects the Brexit agreement with the EU. UK moves to postpone Brexit
60 US and China fail to reach an accord on trade in 2019. Trade tensions escalate further.