The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2019 | II 2019 | III 2019 | IV 2019 | I 2020 | II 2020 | III 2020 | IV 2020 | I 2021 | II 2021 | III 2021 | IV 2021 | I 2022 | II 2022 | III 2022 | IV 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | -14.8 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||
| PCE % | 1.1 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | -17.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||||||
| CPI % | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | -2.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||||||
| 174 | 152 | 188 | 210 | 120 | -535 | -105 | 10 | 85 | 110 | 135 | 140 | 135 | 120 | 110 | 115 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.42 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 1.88 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.55 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.20 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.38 | 2.38 | 1.88 | 1.63 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.63 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Canada | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -1.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -1.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | -1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 109 | 108 | 104 | 108 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 67 | 32 | 41 | 48 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.10 | 2.25 | 2.30 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Coronavirus and oil price war to cause major economic contraction in 2Q; output shrinks in 2020. |
| HIGH | Economic activity in 2020 will be inversely correlated to rate of coronavirus infection. |
| Moderate | 10 yr.T-note yield to remain near 1% in 2020 but climb in 2021 as investor appetite for US debt wanes. |
| HIGH | Business CAP EX delayed as coronavirus, oil price free fall, US elections cloud the economic outlook. |
| HIGH | Fourth stimulus package will contain major increase in infrastructure spending. |
| HIGH | Coronavirus prevents China from fulfilling Phase 1 trade deal. Trump to resume criticism by summer. |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | China: Coronavirus to causes a recession in 2020, though it won't be reflected in official data. |
| HIGH | Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2020; new elections are planned. |
| HIGH | As public criticism grows of Xi Jinping's leadership, Politburo rescinds his "president for life" status. |
| Moderate | Foreign adversaries launch cyber attack to affect US presidential election. |
| Moderate | Iran: Coronavirus mismanagement fuels distrust of theocratic gov't and incites new civil unrest. |
| Moderate | India's legal changes to Kashmir and national citizenship raises risk of new conflict with Pakistan. |
| HIGH | With UK now out of the EU, talks on their future economic relationship to extend beyond 2020. |