Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.9 1.5 2.6 2.4 -5.0 --32.9 11.8 3.8 2.2 2.8 2.5 3.1 2.8 4.5 4.0 3.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.8 3.7 2.7 1.6 -6.9 -34.6 22.3 4.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.3 2.4 5.1 4.8 3.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.5 0.6 -0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.8 13.0 14.0 10.9 10.6 9.5 9.1 8.0 7.5 6.9 6.2 6.0
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
174 152 188 210 -142 -4,429 -250 280 780 765 550 1,100 650 320 650 850
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.42 2.00 1.65 1.88 0.63 0.65 0.45 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.15 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.38 1.40
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
2.38 2.38 1.88 1.63 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.63 1.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -6.0 2.7 3.8
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -8.8 3.5 2.5
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -10.9 3.8 3.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -5.2 2.4 3.2
Canda 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -7.6 4.1 3.4
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.2 -4.4 5.9 6.4
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 1.1 7.2 6.2
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -6.6 1.9 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -9.1 1.8 2.8
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -6.9 4.4 3.8
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.3 -7.5 2.9 3.3
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 -4.7 3.3 4.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 111 109 105
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.10 1.18 1.20

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 32 37 48
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.05 2.25 2.30

Economic & Geopolitical Probabilities for 2020 & 2021

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH Second wave of Covid-19 will lead to another, though milder economic shutdown in 2H 2020.
HIGH Without an extension of the $600/wk enhanced unemployment benefit, a double-dip recession is likely.
Moderate 10 yr.T-note yield slowly climbs in 2021 and 2022 as investors diversify into European and EM markets.
HIGH Business CAP EX delayed as coronavirus, oil price weakness, US elections cloud the economic outlook.
HIGH Prepare for a protracted contested US presidential election. Recovery and financial markets to stall.
HIGH US - China relations in free fall over trade, Covid-19, Hong Kong and US campaign rhetoric.
FOREIGN
HIGH China takes full advantage of US distractions over the Covid-19 and November elections.
HIGH Xi Jinping ramps up China's military actions on its western border and in SC Sea
HIGH Russia finds opportunity to move against Belarus, Ukraine and bolster ties with Venezuela.
Moderate Foreign adversaries launch cyber attack to affect US presidential election.
Moderate Iranian citizens tire of dismal economy and Coronavirus. More civil unrest expected.
Moderate Border tensions among India, China and Pakistan raise the risk of new military conflict.
HIGH With UK out of the EU, talks on their future economic relationship will extend beyond 2020.