Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 6.3 6.7 2.3 6.2 2.2 3.6 4.1 3.3 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.2
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 11.4 12.0 2.0 6.8 2.4 4.2 3.7 2.9 1.5 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.8
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.6 5.3 5.4 7.0 6.5 6.1 5.5 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 6.0 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
513 615 651 365 455 625 665 640 385 510 495 410 275 310 315 325
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
1.75 1.44 1.52 1.51 1.75 1.85 1.88 1.90 2.10 2.10 2.26 2.35 2.35 2.45 2.53 2.45
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.38 1.38 1.63 1.63 1.88 1.88

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -3.5 5.4 3.3 2.4 2.5
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -6.7 4.9 3.9 2.4 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -9.8 5.7 4.6 2.5 2.0
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.2 -4.5 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.4
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.3 5.0 4.2 2.7 2.2
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -7.5 7.8 7.0 6.4 5.7
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.3 6.6 4.9 5.2 5.1
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -4.4 4.4 2.3 3.3 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -8.4 5.9 2.9 2.7 2.4
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.3 3.1 2.6 2.7
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -2.9 4.1 2.9 2.4 2.1
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 --3.4 5.4 4.4 3.4 3.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 116 110 108
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.11 1.19 1.22

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 69 66 65
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.29 2.24 2.20 2.20

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2022 & 2023

  • Latest revision: January 4, 2022
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Odds of recession from 2022 thru 2024 are about 20%, absent any major geopolitical shocks.
    Moderate Federal Reserve begins to fed funds rates end of 1Q 2022. Expect two 25 bp increases this year. Three in 2023
    HIGH CPI inflation drops to 3% range late 2022 as supply chains improve, wages stabilize and WTI oil slips to mid $60s bbl.
    Moderate Treasury 10-yr. yields to hover between 1.65% to 2.00% in 2022, and peaks at 2.55% in 2024.
    HIGH Covid-19 becomes an endemic. Low vaccination rates in Africa & parts of Asia remain breeding grounds for new variants.
    Moderate Congress to pass a more modest ($1.5 trillion) "Build, Back Better" plan by 1Q 2022, with minor changes in tax rates.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH China's economy to sharply decelerate due to shakeout in property market, broad deleveraging & fresh Covid outbreaks.
    HIGH Beijing fortifies naval presence in SCS and ramps up threats against Taiwan.
    HIGH Biden orders greater US naval presence in SCS to defend International Law of the Sea and support regional allies.
    Moderate US - Russia tensions worsen as Moscow destabilizes Ukraine and considers sending Russian troops back to Cuba.
    HIGH A cyber World War is underway; likely to result in periodic disruptions to global financial networks and power grids.
    HIGH Iran secretly moves ahead to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Israel readies pre-emptive action.
    Moderate Economies of US & Europe to steadily improve in 2022, but recoveries in Africa & Latin America to lag behind 1 - 2 years.