Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.4 3.3 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.1 4.6 3.2 2.8 2.2 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 4.1 3.0 2.7 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
174 152 188 184 180 165 155 150 140 155 155 140 135 120 110 115
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.42 2.00 1.65 1.88 2.00 2.15 2.50 2.80 3.10 3.20 3.45 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.85 4.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
2.38 2.38 1.88 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.7 1.9
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.3
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.0
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.8 2.3 1.5
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.6 7.3 0.0
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.7
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 1.2
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.3
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 0.9
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.0

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 108 104 108
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.16 1.18 1.14

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 64 65 59
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.53 2.55 2.50

Economic & Geopolitical Probabilities for 2020 & 2021

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH No major "phase two" trade deal with China expected in 2020. Beijing to wait for US election outcome.
Moderate A highly polarized presidential election campaign will sap some energy from the US economy.
Moderate Federal Reserve to stand pat in 2020. The next move will be to raise rates in early 2021.
HIGH Yield on 10 yr.Treasury climbs as inflation picks up and investor appetite for US debt wanes.
HIGH U.S. firms revive CAP EX in 2020 on brighter US and international economic outlook.
HIGH Main economic catalysts the next two years: Consumer spending, business investments and exports.
FOREIGN
HIGH Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2020; new elections are planned.
HIGH China sends paramilitary into Hong Kong to quash pro-democracy protests.
Moderate Foreign adversary launches cyber attack that paralyzes parts of US economy.
HIGH Iran proceeds to enrich uranium past 20%. Risks increase of a military response by US or Israel.
Moderate India's legal changes to Kashmir and national citizenship raises risk of new conflict with Pakistan.
HIGH UK to leave EU end of January 2020. Talks on future UK-EU economic relationship to last beyond 2020.
Moderate As Turkey strengthens ties with Russia, US increases troop presence in Syria and Iraq.