Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2018 II 2018 III 2018 IV 2018 I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.2 3.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.2 2.4 2.3 2.3
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 0.5 3.8 3.5 2.5 1.3 2.3 2.2 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
228 243 189 233 174 170 175 180 160 165 155 140
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.74 2.85 3.06 2.76 2.42 2.35 2.80 3.05 3.25 3.40 3.50 3.60
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
1.63 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.13 2.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.3 2.1
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.9 1.1
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 1.4 3.0 1.8 1.6 1.9
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 7.9 7.1 8.2 7.2 6.8 7.2
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.2
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.4 2.3 1.3 2.1
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.8
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.7
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.3 2.0 1.9
World 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 115 112
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.20

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 57 51
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.32 2.22

Major Stock Indexes

End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 % Change '18 End 2019 % Change '19
DJIA 19,763 24,719 23,327 -5.6 24,327 3.9
S&P 500 2,239 2,674 2,507 -6.2 2,622 4.6
NASDAQ 5,383 6,903 6,635 -3.9 7,113 7.2
RUSSELL 2000 1,357 1,536 1,349 -12.2 1,431 6.1

Economic & Geopolitical Risks to Monitor

Projections are for 2019 and 2020
PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH U.S. settles on interim trade deal with China in 2H 2019. Threat of a broader tariffs recedes.
HIGH Strains emerge between Trump and USTR Lighthizer as a final trade accord with China remains elusive.
HIGH U.S. inflation picks up by summer even as economy slows; Fed keeps rates unchanged in 2019.
HIGH 10 Yr. Treasury yield rebounds sharply in 2020 as global investor appetite to fund U.S. deficits decreases.
HIGH U.S. firms boost CAP EX in 2019 to offset labor scarcity and to domesticate supply chains.
Moderate U.S. economy suffers a two-quarter contraction by 2020.
FOREIGN
HIGH Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new elections are planned.
HIGH China successfully arrests economic slowdown by using selective stimulus.
Moderate U.S. - China clash militarily in the South China Sea and over Taiwan.
HIGH Terrorist attempts to sabotage Saudi oil infrastructure increases in 2019. Oil prices climb.
HIGH Iran counters U.S. sanctions by taking actions that raise tensions in the Middle East.
HIGH Boris Johnson most likely to be next PM; Will pull UK out of EU by October with or without deal.
Moderate WTI oil to average between $50 and $60 bbl as the weak global economy reduces demand for crude.