Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2011 II 2011 III 2011 IV 2011 I 2012 II 2012 III 2012 IV 2012 I 2013 II 2013 III 2013 IV 2013
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.8 3.0 3.3 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE 2.1 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.4 2.7 3.0 2.1 3.2 3.0 3.8
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.7 3.6 3.9 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.1
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 8.8 9.2 9.1 8.5 8.6 9.0 8.8 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
192 130 128 157 165 145 150 220 170 265 280 300
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period)
3.5 3.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5
Federal funds rate % (end of period)
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.75

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US 1.9 -0.3 -3.5 3.0 1.7 2.3 3.1
Eurozone 2.6 0.6 -4.1 1.7 1.4 -2.0 1.5
United Kingdom 3.1 0.6 -4.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.8
Japan 2.1 -0.7 -5.1 3.9 -0.3 1.7 2.1
Canada 2.7 0.7 -2.8 3.2 2.2 2.1 3.0
India 8.9 6.1 6.7 8.5 7.2 6.5 8.0
China 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.2 8.3 9.0
Brazil 5.7 5.1 -0.6 7.5 3.4 3.6 5.8
Mexico 3.3 1.4 -6.6 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.9
Australia 4.0 2.3 1.2 2.8 1.8 2.9 4.0
Russia 8.1 5.6 -7.9 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.7
World 4.9 2.0 -0.6 4.0 2.9 2.6 4.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 79 77
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.39 1.42

Oil (NYMEX future) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013
Crude oil per barrel 43 80 91 99 105 110
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.50 3.60

Major Stock Indexes

End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 % Change '11 End 2012 % Change '12
DJIA 10,428 11,577 12,218 5.5 13,314 9.0
S&P 500 1,115 1,258 1,258 0.0 1,397 11.0
NASDAQ 2,269 2,653 2,605 -1.8 2,785 6.9
RUSSELL 2000 625 784 741 -5.5 778 5.0