The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2020 | II 2020 | III 2020 | IV 2020 | I 2021 | II 2021 | III 2021 | IV 2021 | I 2022 | II 2022 | III 2022 | IV 2022 | I 2023 | II 2023 | III 2023 | IV 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | -5.0 | --31.4 | 33.4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||||||
| PCE % | -6.9 | -33.2 | 41.0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||||||
| CPI % | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| % | 4.4 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||||||
| -303 | -4,427 | 1,322 | 283 | 322 | 385 | 370 | 380 | 270 | 285 | 265 | 240 | 185 | 225 | 235 | 250 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.91 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.60 | 1.70 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.90 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||||||
| 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 1.13 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | -3.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -6.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -9.9 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -4.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Canada | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -5.1 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | -8.2 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -8.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -4.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -4.2 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | End 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 109 | 104 | 103 | 100 | 100 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | End 2021 | End 2022 | End 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 67 | 52 | 60 | 50 | 48 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.25 | 2.46 | 2.20 | 2.17 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Pres. Biden and a Democratically-controlled Congress to pass $1.7 - 1.9 trillion aid by March 2021. |
| Moderate | Covid-19 vaccinations will not reach 75% of US population before 4th quarter 2021. |
| Moderate | Combination of fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and robust consumer spending to produce a temporary pop in inflation. |
| HIGH | Expect the Federal Reserve to look past this transient increase in inflation in 2021. No rate hike seen before 2023. |
| HIGH | The Fed will gradually scale back asset purchases in IVQ 2021 as new economic cycle takes hold. |
| HIGH | Covid-19 likely to become an endemic pathogen. Will be constrained annually by vaccine, like the flu. |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | China expands drilling in SCS and ratchets up tensions with both Taiwan and Hong Kong. |
| Moderate | Pres. Biden orders larger US naval presence in SCS to defend the International Law of the Sea. |
| Moderate | Pres. Biden raises sanctions against Russia for its persistent cyberattacks and extrajudicial killings. |
| HIGH | A full scale cyber World War escalates and may disrupt global financial networks and power grids. |
| HIGH | Middle East tensions to surge as Iran further enriches uranium and restricts IAEA inspections. |
| Moderate | Vaccinations among emerging countries will not reach herd immunity until 2023. |
| HIGH | Biden to reset trade relations with Europe, but is in no rush to reverse tariffs placed on Chinese imports. |