Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024 I 2025 II 2025 III 2025 IV 2025
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -1.6 -0.6 3.2 2.9 -0.3 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.8 3.1 2.2 2.6 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.1 0.8 1.2 2.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.1 2.7 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.9
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 8.5 9.1 8.2 6.5 5.9 5.4 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
539 349 372 247 189 180 215 225 180 275 340 260 210 265 310 270
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.32 2.97 3.80 3.83 3.75 3.65 3.58 3.40 3.45 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.60 3.48 3.35 3.35
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.38 1.63 3.13 4.38 4.88 4.88 4.88 4.88 4.13 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1 1.5 2.5
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.2 2.3 0.6 1.7
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 -9.3 7.4 3.3 -0.5 1.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.2 -4.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.2 4.5 3.0 0.7 2.6
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 3.8 -6.6 8.7 7.0 6.2 7.3
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.1 3.0 3.8 5.2
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.7 -4.2 4.6 2.7 1.8 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.2 -8.3 4.8 2.3 1.3 2.4
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.4 1.9 2.8
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 4.7 -5.4 -3.1 2.8
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 --3.3 5.8 2.6 2.1 3.3

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 131 122 118
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.11 1.17

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 85 81 76
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.30 3.38 3.20 2.95 2.80

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2023

  • Latest revision: January 26, 2023
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Chance of recession in 2023 reduced to 25%. Foresee no major contraction in U.S. consumer and biz spending.
    Moderate Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates in 2023; Inflation's decline briefly stalls as China & Europe's economy strengthens.
    HIGH Forecast assumption: Russia ends war in Ukraine by summer of 2023. Oil and natural gas prices retreat 1H of year.
    Moderate Treasury 10-yr. yield hovers between 3.35% to 3.85% the next 12- 18 months given the risk of a mild recession.
    HIGH Supply chain flows should continue to improve in 2023 as China's economy slowly picks up speed in 2H.
    HIGH Labor shortage in U.S. to last thru 2023, despite economic slowdown. Yet wage inflation continues to decelerate.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Russia's economy is cratering. GDP to contract 3.0% - 5.00% in 2022, and another 3% in 2023.
    Moderate Shipments of hi-tech military tanks and resources to aid in Ukraine's defense will hasten Vladimir Putin's demise.
    Moderate Beijing fortifies naval presence in South China Sea and Taiwan Straight to counter US political support of Taiwan.
    HIGH China's chaotic abandonment of zero-covid policies will delay economic recovery to 2H.
    Moderate OPEC seen raising output in 2H 2023 as global economic activity accelerates and increases demand for crude.
    HIGH Iran has enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, and is now testing missile delivery systems. Israel unlikely to sit by.
    Moderate Recession odds in Eurozone drops to 45% (from 80%). Economy rebounds as war in Ukraine ends & energy prices ease.