Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022 I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% -5.0 --31.4 33.4 4.3 6.4 8.7 6.6 5.9 3.8 4.9 5.5 4.2 2.8 3.5 3.1 2.9
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % -6.9 -33.2 41.0 2.3 10.7 11.3 6.5 6.0 3.4 5.2 4.2 3.6 3.1 4.1 2.8 3.5
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.4 11.1 7.8 6.7 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.1
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
-303 -4,427 1,322 213 513 555 510 620 424 325 265 240 185 225 235 250
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
0.63 0.65 0.68 0.91 1.75 1.68 1.65 1.79 1.77 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.90 2.05 2.00 2.10
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.38 0.88 1.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -3.5 7.2 4.6 3.1
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -6.8 3.3 2.5 2.0
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -9.9 4.4 4.6 3.1
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -4.8 2.4 2.8 2.2
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.1 5.4 3.4 2.9
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -8.2 5.8 6.4 6.7
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.3 6.6 5.7 5.6
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -4.1 2.9 2.7 2.4
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -8.3 3.1 2.8 2.7
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 2.5 3.0 2.7
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -3.1 2.4 3.3 2.0
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 -4.2 4.4 4.2 3.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 112 106 102
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.15 1.24 1.26

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 60 50 48
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.25 2.46 2.20 2.17

Key Economic & Geopolitical Projections for 2021 & 2022

  • Updated: April 15, 2021
  • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Congress to pass smaller $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan late 2021; includes tax increases & resurrects earmarks.
    Moderate Covid-19 vaccinations will not reach 75% of US population before 4th quarter 2021.
    HIGH The fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and consumer spending to produce a "temporary pop" in inflation in 2021.
    HIGH Treasury 10-yr. yields to hover between 1.5% to 1.8% in 2021, with inflation (CPI) in the 1.7% to 2.7% range.
    HIGH The Fed will gradually scale back asset purchases in IVQ 2021 as new economic cycle takes hold.
    Moderate Bottlenecks in US supply chains should begin to clear in second half of 2021.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Beijing fortifies naval presence in SCS, further erodes autonomy in Hong Kong and increases threats against Taiwan.
    HIGH Pres. Biden orders larger US naval presence in SCS to support allies and defend International Law of the Sea.
    HIGH US - Russian tensions approach cold war levels over Moscow's cyberattacks, extrajudicial killings and Ukraine.
    Moderate Cyber World War erupts and turns more destructive; may disrupt global financial networks and power grids.
    HIGH Iran determined to produce enough fissile material for nuclear weapon. Israel readies a preemptive strike.
    Moderate Europe's economic recovery delayed as more virulent Covid strains spread and confidence in vaccinations erodes.
    HIGH Biden to reset trade relations with Europe, but is in no rush to reverse tariffs placed on Chinese imports.