The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2017 | II 2017 | III 2017 | IV 2017 | I 2018 | II 2018 | III 2018 | IV 2018 | I 2019 | II 2019 | III 2019 | IV 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||
| % | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||
| PCE % | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||
| CPI % | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||
| % | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||
| 166 | 187 | 128 | 204 | 218 | 211 | 170 | 160 | 130 | 110 | 115 | 98 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||
| 2.39 | 2.30 | 2.33 | 2.41 | 2.74 | 2.85 | 3.03 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.10 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||
| 0.88 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.38 | 1.63 | 1.88 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.63 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 3.38 | |
| Country | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | -2.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Eurozone | -4.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| United Kingdom | -5.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Japan | -5.4 | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Canada | -2.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| India | 6.3 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| China | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Brazil | -0.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Mexico | -4.7 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Australia | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Russia | -7.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| World | -1.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 111 | 109 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 71 | 64 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.70 | 2.55 |
| End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | % Change '17 | End 2018 | % Change '18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17,425 | 19,763 | 24,719 | 25.1 | 26,400 | 6.8 |
| S&P 500 | 2,044 | 2,239 | 2,674 | 19.4 | 2,824 | 5.6 |
| NASDAQ | 5,007 | 5,383 | 6,903 | 28.2 | 7,393 | 7.1 |
| RUSSELL 2000 | 1,136 | 1,357 | 1,536 | 13.1 | 1,708 | 11.2 |
| PROBABILITY (%) | U.S. |
|---|---|
| 75 | White House implements additional tariffs and triggers a full-scale trade war |
| 30 | President Trump departs before his first term expires |
| 30 | Federal Reserve raises interest rates too rapidly; Yield curve inverts |
| 55 | President Trump announces withdrawal from NAFTA |
| 65 | U.S. economic recession to begin in 2019 or 2020 |
| FOREIGN | |
| 20 | War on the Korean Peninsula |
| 85 | China ramps up spending and borrowing to fend off economic weakness from tariffs |
| 65 | U.S. - Chinese confrontation in the South China Sea and over Taiwan |
| 65 | Iran - Saudi tensions escalate. Oil prices surge |
| 40 | War erupts between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah |
| 15 | Brexit talks collapse and imperils global trade |
| 80 | Foreign adversaries launch cyber attacks to disrupt US economy |