The Economic Outlook Group"in the news"
| I 2018 | II 2018 | III 2018 | IV 2018 | I 2019 | II 2019 | III 2019 | IV 2019 | I 2020 | II 2020 | III 2020 | IV 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP): | ||||||||||||
| % | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: | ||||||||||||
| PCE % | 0.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Inflation, end of period, year-over-year: | ||||||||||||
| CPI % | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (end of period): | ||||||||||||
| % | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand: | ||||||||||||
| 228 | 243 | 189 | 233 | 180 | 175 | 170 | 160 | 140 | 120 | 95 | 110 | |
| Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period): | ||||||||||||
| 2.74 | 2.85 | 3.06 | 2.76 | 2.42 | 2.69 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.15 | |
| Federal funds rate % (end of period): | ||||||||||||
| 1.63 | 1.88 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 2.38 | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Eurozone | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Canada | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| India | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Brazil | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Mexico | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| World | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/Yen | 91 | 93 | 81 | 77 | 87 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 115 | 112 |
| Euro/USD | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| End 2008 | End 2009 | End 2010 | End 2011 | End 2012 | End 2013 | End 2014 | End 2015 | End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | End 2019 | End 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil per barrel | 46 | 78 | 95 | 107 | 111 | 111 | 58 | 38 | 49 | 67 | 54 | 57 | 51 |
| Gasoline | 1.61 | 2.57 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.00 | 2.31 | 2.47 | 2.26 | 2.32 | 2.22 |
| End 2016 | End 2017 | End 2018 | % Change '18 | End 2019 | % Change '19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 19,763 | 24,719 | 23,327 | -5.6 | 24,327 | 3.9 |
| S&P 500 | 2,239 | 2,674 | 2,507 | -6.2 | 2,622 | 4.6 |
| NASDAQ | 5,383 | 6,903 | 6,635 | -3.9 | 7,113 | 7.2 |
| RUSSELL 2000 | 1,357 | 1,536 | 1,349 | -12.2 | 1,431 | 6.1 |
| PROBABILITY | U.S. |
|---|---|
| HIGH | U.S. achieves interim trade deal with China. Threat of 25% tariffs on Chinese imports recedes |
| HIGH | Signs of wage/price spiral emerges by summer. Fed hikes rates once more |
| HIGH | 10 Yr.Treasury yield climbs in 2H 2019 as investor appetite to fund trillion dollar U.S. budget deficits fade |
| LOW | US companies significantly ramp up capital expenditures in 2019 |
| MODERATE | U.S. economic recession to begin by 2020 |
| FOREIGN | |
| HIGH | Venezuela's Maduro regime collapses in 2019; new elections are held |
| HIGH | China boosts official spending and extends credit to fend off economic downturn |
| MODERATE | U.S. - Chinese military clash in the South China Sea and over Taiwan |
| MODERATE | Saudi monarchy in turmoil in 2019. Oil prices climb |
| MODERATE | Major clashes erupt between Israel & Lebanon's Hezbollah |
| HIGH | UK postpones Brexit by several months, followed by a second referendum or new national elections |
| LOW | Fighting between India and Pakistan escalates. Both countries edge closer to a nuclear confrontation |