Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2019 II 2019 III 2019 IV 2019 I 2020 II 2020 III 2020 IV 2020 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV 2021 I 2022 II 2022 III 2022 IV 2022
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.9 1.5 2.6 2.4 -5.0 --31.4 33.1 2.2 1.5 3.5 3.8 3.0 3.5 5.2 4.9 3.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.8 3.7 2.7 1.6 -6.9 -33.2 40.6 4.0 2.2 3.8 4.6 3.3 2.4 5.1 4.8 3.7
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.5 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 4.4 11.1 7.9 8.1 8.2 7.4 6.8 6.8 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.2
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
174 152 188 210 -303 -4,427 1,304 690 785 710 375 320 300 320 375 360
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
2.42 2.00 1.65 1.88 0.63 0.65 0.68 1.05 0.90 1.05 1.10 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.55 1.85
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
2.38 2.38 1.88 1.63 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

GDP Growth - Global Economy

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.2 -2.8 2.9 4.2
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -8.8 3.5 2.5
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 -10.3 4.6 3.9
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -5.2 2.4 3.2
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -5.8 5.4 3.4
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.8 4.8 -8.8 9.9 6.4
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.1 7.4 6.2
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 -6.0 2.9 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 -9.6 3.3 2.8
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -3.9 3.5 3.8
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 -4.9 2.9 3.3
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 -3.8 4.7 4.2

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 106 104 103
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.17 1.19 1.21

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (Average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 34 43 40
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.15 2.25 2.20

Economic & Geopolitical Probabilities for 2020 & 2021

  • Projections made: October 31, 2020
    • PROBABILITY U.S.
    HIGH Forecast assumption: Joe Biden wins in November; GOP controls Senate and Democrats the House.
    HIGH Without a major pandemic stimulus program in 2021, a double-dip recession is likely .
    Moderate Passage of a major stimulus plan in 2021 will lift 10 yr.T-note yield as investors anticipate inflation.
    HIGH Business CAP EX accelerates as the stimulus and vaccine improves the economic outlook.
    Moderate Covid-19 casualties to taper off after Q1 and sets the stage for an economic recovery.
    HIGH US - China relations in free fall over trade, annexation of South China Sea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
    FOREIGN
    HIGH Next US President confronts a China that expands drilling in SCS and threatens to invade Taiwan.
    Moderate Xi Jinping also ramps up China's military actions on its western border with India>
    Moderate Russia deepens its influence in Latin America after firming ties with Venezuela.
    HIGH Foreign adversaries launch cyber attack to affect US presidential election.
    HIGH Iranian citizens tire of dismal economy and Coronavirus. More civil unrest expected.
    Moderate Islamic terrorists attempt to use weapons of mass destruction against nations engage in blasphemy.
    HIGH With UK out of the EU, talks on their future economic relationship will extend beyond 2020.